Netanyahu's two victories

Israel is a country accustomed to constant swings in its politics, the result of the enormous diversity of sensibilities that coexist within its borders, and which is reflected in a parliament (officially called the Knesset) that is highly fragmented and divided. That is why it is unusual for governments to end the term for which they were invested. The fragility of coalitions and the volatility of government pacts are part of the Israeli political landscape.

However, few foresaw the sudden turnaround led by Benny Gantz, the leader of the Blue & White coalition, formed just a year ago by three parties united by their animosity towards Netanyahu, the current prime minister. Gantz promised his electorate again and again that his coalition would not join a government in which Netanyahu was prime minister. Netanyahu, who has been in office for more than a decade, is accused of corruption and influence peddling, and is awaiting trial, postponed in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.

Gantz's refusal to enter the executive with Netanyahu even led him to consider forming a government with the United List, a party representing the Arab minority living in Israel. This is an almost unprecedented occasion in Israel, since for most Israeli parties (and also their electorate) collaboration with the Arab party is a red line. The United List, the third largest party in the Knesset with 15 seats, announced that it would support Gantz's inauguration. Its fifteen seats, added to those of the Social Democratic coalition and the right-wing secular party Israel Our House, plus the 33 seats of Azul & Blanco, gave Gantz a slim 61 seat majority over Netanyahu. 

But on March 26, when it seemed that the end of Netanyahu's term was near, Gantz surprised the Israeli electorate when he announced that, instead of running for the post of Prime Minister, he would settle for being elected Speaker of the Knesset. And so it happened, as the right-wing parties, including Netanyahu's Likud, supported Gantz for the post. Gantz's radical change of script was the consequence of a behind-the-scenes agreement reached in extremis with Netanyahu. The position of Speaker of the Knesset is crucial, as he is the person who sets the agenda for parliamentary proceedings. 

What is surprising about this decision is that, by making a pact with Netanyahu, Gantz has renounced the strategy he had agreed with the rest of the opposition: to pass a law that would prevent a politician accused of a crime from being elected prime minister. This proposal was clearly aimed at blocking Netanyahu's path, and was the first step towards replacing Netanyahu with Gantz after three inconclusive elections between 2019 and 2020.

That was, then, Netanyahu's first victory, one focused on the short term: buying time. By convincing Gantz to join him, Netanyahu is guaranteed to be invested as prime minister, thus having immunity from the crimes for which he is being tried. 

But what promise has Gantz received to change the course of his ship so suddenly? The idea is that Netanyahu, once he is sworn in as Prime Minister, will rule for a year and a half, and then be succeeded by Gantz for the same amount of time. It would seem that Netanyahu has given in, as he will eventually lose his immunity at the end of his year and a half in office. But many analysts have not missed the cunning maneuver that Netanyahu probably has in mind.

In mid-2021, the term of office of Israel's current president, Reuven Rivlin, ends. As head of state, Rivlin holds a ceremonial and representative position. And if Netanyahu is finally invested as Prime Minister in the next few days, his year-and-a-half term will indeed end in mid-2021.

And this has been Netanyahu's second victory: the presidency of Israel. In 2021, the 120 members of the Knesset will vote for a new president. If Netanyahu gets enough votes to get a majority, he will make the leap from head of government to head of state, the presidency. And with the presidency comes, of course, immunity. If he gets his way, Netanyahu would add seven years of immunity (the length of the president's term in Israel) to the year and a half he would rule as prime minister. If such a strategy worthy of House of Cards succeeds, Netanyahu will leave the presidency close to 80 years old.

Thus, Benny Gantz's surrender to his former chief rival may have long-lasting consequences for Israel. A prime minister allegedly involved in three criminal cases would be shielded by the immunity of senior government officials. Just a week ago, Gantz had the support of a small minority of Knesset members. Now his Blue & White coalition has split in two, with half of his 32 MPs supporting Netanyahu, and the other half dismayed at what they see as "a betrayal of their voters", in the words of his now ex-partisan Yair Lapid. 

Gantz justifies his decision on the need to form a stable government with the support of a large part of Israeli public society, especially at a critical time in the country due to the coronavirus pandemic. For some, this decision hails him as a statesman who has prioritized the country's interests over partisan ones. For others, Gantz has given new life to a corrupt prime minister who, for the first time in a decade, seemed defeated a week ago. Due to the serious crisis that Israel is suffering from the coronavirus pandemic that has already claimed some fifty lives across its borders, talks between Gantz and Netanyahu's Likud seem to have slowed down, but it is only a matter of time before they reach an agreement.

Be that as it may, what is clear is that Netanyahu has achieved a crucial victory at the expense of a fragmented opposition. He has divided, and he has won.