Europe cannot afford to fail in the maiden flight of the Ariane 6
Both events compete in importance with the impact of the takeoff from French Guiana, starting at 8:00 p.m., Spanish peninsular time, of the first Ariane 6, for which everything is already prepared in the launch area built in the middle of the jungle. Amazonian.
The challenge and impact represented by the maiden flight of the Ariane 6 is of such magnitude that the European Space Agency (ESA) cannot afford for it to end in a fiasco, be it total or partial. It cannot and should not be, even though it is a demonstration or qualification mission, because what is also at stake is the already diminished credibility of ESA and the space ambitions of the European Union.
But the cards have already been cast. Except for a last-minute delay due to meteorological reasons or some technical incident, the global space community awaits the moment to watch how the Ariane 6's powerful rocket engines roar and burst into flames and, little by little, it takes flight to become Europe's new space transportation vector.
Because its long-awaited launch is going to materialize four years late for various reasons: Covid-19, delays in rehearsals, technical problems in its development... But, finally, the critical hour has arrived, the result of which will have a great impact on the immediate and long-term future of the space industry of the Old Continent.
The first flight statistics are on a knife edge
The statistics of the first shots of new space rockets are not very encouraging. It reflects that almost half of them, specifically 47 percent, whether they are large, medium or small vectors, end in failure. Thus, the entire group of professionals is aware of the problems and risks that are associated with an inaugural flight, and there is no choice but to accept the certain possibility that it could go wrong.
The most recent fiasco, the one that temporarily curtailed Japan's space exploration expectations, was that of the new H3 rocket developed by the industrial giant Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. On March 7, 2023, it took off successfully from the Tanegashima base, but its second propulsion stage did not ignite and it had to be struck down in mid-flight, destroying the ALOS-3 telescope it housed.
In the minds of veterans of the global space sector, especially those of Europeans, the image of the maiden flight of the Ariane 5 is stored. More than 28 years ago - on June 4, 1996 -, 36 seconds after takeoff , a failure in its onboard software system diverted its trajectory and caused an explosion, which shattered the rocket and the four Cluster scientific probes it housed.
Its second launch was delayed 17 months, until October 30 of the following year, and also had significant deficiencies. It would not be until its third mission, on October 21, 1998, when it met expectations and the Ariane 5 entered service, which has had a very, very satisfactory career.
In the 21st century, fortunately, "digital simulation and testing tools are much more reliable than 27 years ago, they have been practiced ad nauseam and we trust in the full success of the mission," says the president of the French space agency. (CNES), Philippe Baptiste. But the reality is that the Ariane 6 must demonstrate that it is capable of starting its engines, rising above the launch tower, following its planned trajectory and depositing the satellites it carries in their correct orbits. If you succeed... Success!
But as is clear, every first flight of a space launcher is full of risks, even though practically everything has been evaluated and tested on the ground. It is understandable that the director of space transportation at ESA, the Dane Toni Tolker-Nielsen, is a nervous wreck, waiting to see the behavior of his godson. He has confessed his concern and said that “I am 96 percent confident and, obviously, I am terrified of the remaining 4 percent.”
A program of great industrial significance
Around 600 companies have participated in the development, manufacturing and fine-tuning of the new vector and everything that surrounds it, which have received funding from ESA and 13 of its associated nations, investments that far exceed 3.6 billion euros. initial euros planned. France's space industry has received 55.6 percent of workloads, in line with the volume of its investments.
Germany follows in order of importance and based on its investments, its industrial fabric accounts for 20.8 percent of the work on the Ariane 6. Third place is occupied by Italy, with 7.7 percent, followed by Spain ( 4.7%), Belgium (3.8%) and Switzerland (2.4%). The share of Austria, the Czech Republic, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, Romania and Sweden is around 1.5 percent or even lower.
If the flight proceeds in general terms as planned, ESA has announced that the examination and analysis of all the different parameters of the flight will take between 4 and 5 months. In that time, the French launch services company, Arianespace, must take over and assume full responsibility for the second launch, scheduled for next October, if things go well.
Antón Cuadrado, who was a direct witness of the production of the Ariane 4, the development of Ariane 5 and the conception phase of the Ariane 6 - in the last two cases as the head of what is today Airbus Space Systems in Spain - recalls the general criteria that have prevailed to make the Ariane 6 a reality: “go safe and urgent, maintain the industrial fabric and take advantage of existing manufacturing technologies.”
The purpose was to achieve a “modular and versatile Ariane 6, regardless of its configuration for the launch and placing into orbit of single, double or constellation satellites.” “In my opinion, I understand that it has been achieved and I hope to see it fly successfully on as many occasions as the Ariane 5 has done, which has been more than 110 times.”
This is also expected by Olaya Pérez from Barcelona, in charge of the 40 technicians that GTD has assigned to the Ariane 6 program. And Elena Cal who, from Guayana, leads the twelve computer specialists that the company has deployed there. Its Director of Operations, Ricardo Bennassar, states that “each member of the team is with all five senses in front of their work screens.” “In addition, we are committed to maintaining, operating and improving the complex systems that make the Ariane 6 system possible for 20 years.”
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