The hell of Gaza: Uncomfortable truths

By now, even those who are least interested in security or geopolitical issues know that the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza (note the importance of the words: it is not a conflict between Israel and Palestine, nor between Israel and Gaza) is not something that has arisen recently. We are witnessing a devastating escalation caused by Hamas' attack on Israel on 7 October 2023. Nor can we ignore the fact that the repercussions of what is happening, and the final outcome, whatever it may be, will have a serious regional and global impact.

As we approach the end of 2025, the outlook ahead of us is one of a humanitarian and governance crisis of catastrophic proportions. Our intention today is to try to explain what is happening, without resorting to the simplistic, feel-good, and childish arguments put forward in numerous generalist spaces of all ideological persuasions, so that at a later date, and within our means, carry out a brief prospective study to assess the possible ramifications of three key scenarios, based on a rigorous analysis of information from news agencies, reports from the UN and other international organisations, as well as strategic analysis documents.

The human cost is overwhelming, there is no doubt about that; however, we must not forget that the figures being disseminated and accepted as valid by the media and governments are partial figures provided by the Hamas Ministry of Health. Therefore, we can say that the more than 65,000 dead and 144,000 wounded have not been verified. It is true that Israel is not making it easy either by not providing its own figures and not allowing the press access to the area.

That being the case, and knowing for sure that these numbers are not real, we can say that in this area, Hamas has already won the battle for the narrative. The best proof of this is that no one is talking about the more than 1,500 deaths caused by Hamas in October 2023; what's more, some people have even dared to say publicly that these figures, as well as the rapes and other incidents, are a hoax. Seeing is believing.

Another aspect of the devastation, and key to the argument we want to make, is the material damage. With satellite images, it is possible to assess the effects fairly accurately, and this data may be more reliable. In February 2025, 35% of the structures in Gaza, equivalent to 88,868 buildings, were damaged, and by July, almost half of the buildings were affected. Health, water, sanitation and education infrastructures are completely collapsed, and it is estimated that the removal of rubble, which must be accompanied by a thorough clean-up of UXOs, will take several years to complete once hostilities have ended. This last piece of information on infrastructure is key to understanding what is happening.

According to some analysts or commentators, Hamas is nothing more than another terrorist group. Even in some circles, talk shows and even in some official statements, there are those who have dared to compare Hamas to the nefarious ETA and cite how our country fought a terrorist group as an example (this could also be discussed, because it is worth remembering that no one took that fight seriously until, in addition to police officers, civil guards and soldiers, politicians and journalists began to fall, but that is another story). That is the main fundamental error. Hamas is not simply a terrorist group, it is an organisation that acts as a proxy for Iran and has been recognised as such by numerous Western countries, which is not the same thing.

For those who are not familiar with what Hamas was and is, it is worth remembering that Hamas has a force of between 25,000 and 35,000 combatants, perfectly indoctrinated, trained and armed, mainly by Iran. And not only with light weapons, but also with heavy machine guns, anti-tank missiles, rockets of all kinds, some of them with a range that allows them to reach Tel Aviv, mortars and even UAVs. I believe that comparing something like this to ETA and claiming that it can be defeated in the same way can only be done either out of the deepest ignorance (after all, what matters is the slogan) or out of the most malicious intent.

And to all of the above, we must add the infrastructure. For years, or more specifically, decades, Hamas has been fortifying and preparing the entire Gaza Strip, and especially its city, to withstand an incursion by Israel. Its strategy, confirmed by the findings of IDF troops, has included the systematic use of civilian infrastructure to conceal and protect its military assets. Confirmed military facilities include:

• Command and control centres under hospitals: particularly striking is the one found under Al Shifa Hospital (the largest in Gaza), as well as other hospitals such as the Indonesian Hospital and Rantisi Hospital.

• Tunnels and command posts under UN facilities: The discovery of a tunnel complex and a Hamas military data centre running directly under the headquarters of the UNRWA (UN Agency for Palestinian Refugees) in Gaza City has been confirmed.

• Openings and storage facilities in or under residential buildings, schools and mosques: numerous tunnel openings and rocket launch sites have been found in private homes, schools and other public buildings in densely populated areas.

Hamas' key military infrastructure is a multifunctional tunnel network and involves the deliberate use of civilian buildings (such as hospitals and schools) as cover for command posts, weapons storage, access points to the underground network and to secure, for example, the electricity supply, eliminating the electronic and energy signature by operating under these civilian facilities.

Faced with such a situation, we cannot be so naive as to think that the fight to eliminate such a formidable enemy can in any way resemble the way we have fought terrorism in Europe. Probably the closest thing we have to what Israel is facing in Gaza is what happened in Grozny or Fallujah, but corrected and augmented.

Fighting in an environment such as the one described is probably one of the hardest things an army can face, and even more so when your enemy does not wear uniforms or insignia and tries by all means to blend in with the civilian population, which, incidentally, is not allowed to leave the area (with the invaluable help of neighbouring Arab countries that refuse to open their borders so that at least non-combatants can leave the strip).

It is also important to mention the much-discussed issue of humanitarian aid. It is true that it has begun to arrive late and that it could be done better. But it is also true that as soon as the aid enters Gaza territory, Hamas takes charge of it and prevents the population from accessing it, even opening fire on the crowd. The organisation gives priority to its combatants and its wounded, and, why not say it if it is true, just as Hamas deliberately seeks out images of civilians, mainly women and children killed or wounded by Israeli attacks, it also uses images of starving children. One of the major fronts in this war is in the narrative, and for now Hamas is clearly winning there.

The fighting, as we are seeing on a daily basis, is brutal, and the casualties on both sides continue to mount. Nor do the civilian casualties cease. The systems used to calculate the possible collateral damage in each attack are, more often than not, less than desirable, to say the least tolerant of such damage, and the performance of some units at specific moments is totally reprehensible and may even constitute a crime.

Let us not lose sight of the type of fighting that is taking place, the enemy they are facing, and, above all, that, even though some people want to turn a blind eye, this is the only possible path for Israel. As long as Hamas or Hezbollah have even the slightest operational capacity, another 7-O will be possible, and as we have said on other occasions, this is something that Israel will not allow to happen, whatever the cost.

What we cannot do is believe in our own do-goodism and tailor-made fantasy world. Let us condemn what needs to be condemned, but let us not turn the victims into executioners and let us analyse things rigorously.