The United States is serious about Venezuela

The Republican administration led by Donald Trump has long since pointed the finger at Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela's dictator, whom it considers the leader or head of a criminal gang dedicated to drug trafficking.

It is another matter to know whether such an invasion is imminent or will have to wait for the right moment to be framed as a surprise operation by the Caracas government, which is scared to death, starting with Maduro himself and the criminal leadership with which he continues to head Venezuelan political and military power, retaining it through the use of force that continues to administer it, and technically in the position of usurpers of political power, since they hold it, that is, no one has given it to them. 

Indeed, Maduro has acted in a manner that is marginal to the rule of law by retaining power under the rule of intimidation. Of course, the White House makes no reference to these characteristics of Maduro, but rather to his status as a criminal who heads a criminal gang called the Cartel of the Suns, dedicated to illicit drug trafficking that has been negatively impacting American society, mainly the youth of this country.

Washington, then, must surely be waiting for the right moment to launch a military incursion into Venezuela. I have no doubt about that. The impressive naval deployment very close to the Venezuelan coast—note that they have not entered Venezuela's 200-mile zone—solely for deterrence purposes is not really believed by anyone.

Trump is not one to feint. On the contrary, he is waiting for the right moment, and we do not know when that will be, as you will become experts in fiction and analysts of empiricism, that is, completely oblivious to the rigor of scientific reasoning that is characteristic of the science of international relations, which studies political power as a phenomenon across the globe.

Maduro, therefore, is crossing his fingers because it could happen that, within Chavismo-Madurismo itself, they decide to turn the tables on him—they will weigh the pros and cons and conclude that it is not worth risking their lives, and Maduro, faced with this very difficult circumstance, will find himself completely desperate and vulnerable. Washington is looking for the best excuse, and if it doesn't find one, it will create one without any problem.

Let's be on the lookout for the long-awaited moment when Maduro will be arrested, handcuffed, and taken to the United States to be put in prison, as happened to Manuel Antonio Noriega, the dictator of Panama, or Chapo Guzmán, the Mexican drug trafficker, unless he decides to negotiate, dominated by his secrecy, and leaves Venezuela for Nicaragua or Cuba, where he could surely find refuge, or finally, due to his recalcitrant attitude, ends up dead, as has happened to many other tyrants throughout the political history of Latin America and the world.

Miguel Ángel Rodríguez Mackay. Former Foreign Minister of Peru and Internationalist

Article published in the Diario Expreso newspaper of Peru