The Belgian government's dangerous game
On 5 July, French President Emmanuel Macron reiterated remarks made during the last negotiations in Vienna in February 2022 on the Iranian nuclear issue, regretting that Tehran still "refuses" to conclude the agreement on the table regarding its nuclear programme. He also promised to make "every effort" to bring Iran "to its senses". Nevertheless, with all due respect to the French president, it was naïve to think that the Iranian regime would go to Vienna to conclude a nuclear deal, in particular by returning to the JCPOA and all its technical and legal obligations that it has been violating for the past two years.
The stated objective of the JCPoA is to stop Iran's nuclear development. However, the Islamic regime has already demonstrated on many occasions that it will not relent in its desire for nuclear weapons. Indeed, the Islamic Republic has always been faced with one of two options: either it renounces the construction of an atomic bomb and thus regional and international isolation; or it interacts and trades with Western countries and pursues Iran's economic development.
Opting for the second alternative would clearly mean that the theocratic regime opts for peaceful coexistence with its neighbours and, consequently, for an end to regional interference and internal repression and, finally, for the eradication of poverty in the country. It is the sweet dream of a Western diplomat who resists understanding the ideological foundations of a regime that has constitutionally institutionalised internal repression, terrorism, hostage-taking and warmongering abroad; a regime born of medieval religious dogmas, incapable of satisfying the economic, political and cultural needs of a people.
Therefore, in the context of its own survival it must resort to internal repression and terrorism and use blackmail and warmongering to cover up this internal repression. There is strong evidence that Iran will never give up the atomic bomb. The latest is the appointment of Ebrahim Raissi as president of the Islamic Republic. The man, whose past as the zealous organiser of the massacres of the summer of 1988 within the death commission leaves no doubt about his ferocity and convictions, is the real armed wing (faithful among the faithful) of the supreme guide, reinforcing every day a little more the repression against young rebels or "poorly veiled" women.
The last presidential elections were held in the wake of Ali Khamenei's declared intention to create a Hezbollah government after the unrest of 2019. The establishment of this bellicose, completely submissive and obedient government was made possible by two overriding factors: the near-panic fear resulting from the uprising of the population during 2019 and the fierce determination to obtain nuclear weapons. Indeed, Ebrahim Raissi's rise to power must be described first and foremost as a war formation, aimed on the one hand at dealing with popular uprisings and on the other at maintaining control over nuclear and missile programmes, regional warmongering and international "adventures".
Ebrahim Raissi was the ideal candidate to lead this mission. He is recognised inside the country as Khamenei's most obedient and repressive agent. If Iran's Supreme Leader really wanted an agreement with the 5+1, he should have signed it before the end of Hassan Rohani's presidency and the departure of Mohammad Javad Zarif.
The current agreement between the Belgian government and the Iranian regime is supposedly signed to allow the exchange of European citizens convicted in Iran for espionage. In fact, it conceals other truths. In an international context dominated by the Russian war in Ukraine and the ensuing sanctions, the prospect of Iranian gas pushes European leaders to violate their ideals, wielded at every election. Indeed, Iranian gas would allow Europe to escape its dependence on Russian gas.
However, in the past, Iran has had many opportunities to sell its gas on the market. On the one hand, Iran retains its ideological autonomy and allows Russia to become the world's leading gas exporter. In return, Moscow prohibits any global consensus against Iran in the United Nations. In other words, this option is a dead end for the EU and the West, a failure already foreseen for years by Tehran and Moscow. Moreover, if Tehran had really wanted to sell its oil and gas on the market, it would have done so in the framework of an agreement with Western countries, an agreement thanks to which it would have obtained all sorts of privileges, but on the condition that it cease any attempt to obtain a military nuclear power. Unacceptable!
In fact, by constantly delaying negotiations, the Iranian regime is buying time to try to reach the "point of no return", the crucial point that would allow it to obtain the complete technology for the production of nuclear weapons in order to reduce international pressure against it and, if possible, to take advantage of the possible widening of the gap between Europe and America.
In this context, the game Belgium is playing is dangerous, as it not only legitimises the Islamic regime's terrorism, but at the same time, by creating facilities for the sale of Iranian oil, it indirectly aids Iran's policies of repression and warmongering and ultimately also facilitates access to the bomb. The question for the Belgian parliamentarians who will vote on Thursday 14 July is: do they know that by voting in favour of the bill allowing the return of the Iranian terrorist diplomat and his release through an amnesty, they are encouraging the regime to continue its terrorist acts and indirectly helping the regime to build an atomic bomb?
About the author:
Nader NOURI
Former Iranian diplomat (Secretary and then Counsellor of the Iranian Embassy in Paris from 1980 to 1985)
Secretary General of the Foundation for Middle East Studies (FEMO), based in Paris
Co-author of the collective work "Où va l'Iran?" (under the direction of François Colcombet, co-founder of the Syndicat de la magistrature, former socialist deputy, Allier)