Deciphering the results of India’s general elections

Narendra Modi - PHOTO/FILE

Niranjan Marjani

05 de junio de 2024 (14:59 h.)

Tags

India

The results of India’s general elections, which were held in seven phases from April 19 to June 1, were declared on June 4. Contrary to the expectations, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) performance was disappointing. The BJP won 240 seats while the opposition party Congress won 99 seats. However, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), an alliance of parties led by the BJP, won a total of 292 seats which is above the majority mark of 272. On the other hand, the Indian National Inclusive Developmental Alliance (abbreviated as INDIA), of which Congress is a part, won a total of 234 seats. In the 2019 general elections, the BJP alone had won 303 seats while the NDA’s total was 353 seats.

Despite the reduced mandate, the BJP-led NDA is set to form the government. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has resigned and is set to take oath again on June 8.

While detailed analysis of the BJP’s disappointing performance in the general elections could continue in the days to come, following are some observations about the election results.

With this victory, the BJP became the only party other than Congress to win more than three terms. Since independence in 1947, the Congress had ruled India during several terms from 1947 to 1977, 1980 to 1989, 1991 to 1996 and 2004 to 2014. For its part, the BJP had previously formed government in 1996 (for 13 days), from 1998 to 1999 (for a period of 13 months) and from 1999 to 2004 (for a full term of five years). The BJP is also the only party other than the Congress to win three consecutive terms. Modi is the third prime minister after Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi to win more than two terms. Modi also becomes the second prime minister after Jawaharlal Nehru to win three consecutive terms. It implies that this is the first time after 1962 that any prime minister has won a third consecutive term.

Taking to X (formerly Twitter) Modi thanked the people of India for the mandate.

As Modi starts his third term, the era of coalition politics in India has returned. For a long time, particularly between 1989 and 2014, Indian politics was dominated by coalition governments. After Congress won the majority on its own in 1984, no other party had won majority until 2014. In 2014, Modi-led BJP became the first party since 1984 to win majority in the general elections on its own. In 2014, the BJP won 282 seats. The BJP improved its performance in 2019 by winning 303 seats. While the BJP has been governing as a part of the NDA, because of having absolute majority the BJP was not bound by the compulsions of the alliance. In a way the absolute majority allowed the BJP a free hand to run the government.

However, now the BJP has to depend on the support of the allies, the regional parties that are influential in their respective states. It would imply a more consultative way of governance. Further, it also means that the BJP would have to be more sensitive towards the regional issues. The BJP could consider the coalition government as an opportunity to recalibrate its approach towards the regional issues.

While the BJP accommodates the coalition partners, it could also consider extending this phenomenon to its own organizational structure. In the past 10 years, the decision-making process in the BJP has been centralized. As a result, many times the opinion of the party workers who work in the field is not heeded. After these results the BJP would do well to get the feedback from the party workers across India.

A major reason for the BJP’s less than satisfactory performance is that while people support Modi, there are grievances against the local leaders. The BJP needs to correct this should it want to improve its performance in the future.

The issue about centralization has also impacted the identity factor in many parts of India. The BJP follows the ideology of cultural nationalism and is proud of its Hindu identity. However, within Hinduism, the identities of communities and sub-communities are also important. In the future it is necessary for the BJP to temper its approach in a way that the diverse groups within Hinduism do not feel that their identity is being encroached upon. As against BJP’s unified Hindu ideology, the opposition parties were able to exploit the diversity that exists within India’s societal structure. As much as it is important to honour India’s indigenous Hindu tradition, it is equally important to honour the diversities within the Indian culture.

Similarly it is important to address the grievances of the people who have voted against the BJP. The BJP needs to look into if the benefits of its economic policies are reaching to all the strata of people, particularly in the rural areas.

While the BJP’s performance has been disappointing it does not mean that the party has lost everything. The opposition parties are claiming to have performed better. However it is pertinent to note that the BJP alone has won more seats (240) than the total number of seats that the opposition parties have won (234).

Along with the general elections, the elections for four states – Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Andhra Pradesh and Odisha – were also held. The BJP-led NDA has won in all these states. Among these four states, Andhra Pradesh and Odisha are big states. It means that the BJP’s footprint across India has actually increased after these elections.

To return to power after being in the government for 10 years is a remarkable feat for any party in a democratic set up. The opposition parties have been accusing the BJP of undermining democracy. However, the election results have shown an improved performance of the opposition parties and a slightly diminished performance of the BJP. This trend indicates that India’s democracy is active and thriving.

It is early to predict about the functioning of the new government. However Modi could be expected to carry forward his policies in the economic, foreign policy and defence domain of the past 10 years along with increased focus on regional issues.