Should there be a change of government in Italy?

Let us begin this reflection with a first reality that cannot be overlooked: the already known "second wave of coronavirus" is taking place under very different circumstances than the first (which would basically be February-May). Firstly, it gives the impression of being much more lasting: instead of around three months until a new reopening, we can be talking about at least six months or more. Secondly, the States as a whole are much more indebted as a result of the partial cessation of economic activity and the need to allocate much more funds to combating the effects of this epidemic. And thirdly, it seems that the so-called "social peace" has come to an end: society has definitely exploded and decided to take to the streets, and so now we will have to face a conflict that did not exist until now.

Thus, the so-called second Conte government, which came into being in the first week of September 2019, has reached this crucial moment with clear and obvious shortcomings, as it was a fairly improvised executive (it had to be negotiated in a matter of weeks because nobody expected Matteo Salvini to bring down the government of which he was a member in the middle of August) which now displays some of its weaknesses. Both the prime minister (Conte) and the head of health (Roberto Speranza) are in the spotlight at the moment, and the minister of economy and finance (Roberto Gualteri) will soon be. And all this with the disintegration of the Five Stars Movement as a matter of course, a crucial formation for sustaining the current executive because it has, by far, the greatest representation in both houses.

Let us begin with the figure of the President of the Council of Ministers, the jurist Conte. His way of acting since the beginning of the epidemic as a whole has pleasantly surprised many, who reminded him, not long ago, as a mere toy in the hands of Matteo Salvini and Luigi di Maio during the year of the so-called "Government of Change" (June 2018-September 2019). He has shown himself to be very left-handed, capable of leadership and seen himself as an "institutional figure", something in which he owes much to the President of the Republic (Sergio Mattarella), who has permanently placed his trust in him and has been guiding his steps above all since Salvini attempted to put an end to his status as prime minister. But it is true that he is beginning to suffer from the wear and tear of so much time at the head of the government (he is already putting a brake on the 1,000 days of government between his two governments, a figure that very few, apart from the "premiers" belonging to the former DC, have been able to exceed) and furthermore has no real party to support him. It is true that he arrived there through the Five Star Movement, but he himself has been distancing himself from this party over time so that its debacle did not reach him and this has made him a prime minister without a party behind him, with the risks that this entails. For the time being, he can rest assured that Mattarella does not allow his "premier" to be questioned, but it should be remembered that the head of state must always act impartially and, if circumstances continue to worsen, the veteran Sicilian politician may end up thinking about Conte's replacement.

The Minister of Health, Roberto Speranza, is also beginning to be questioned. Originally from the capital of Basilicata (Potenza), Speranza, aged just 41, entered the current government because of the support given to the new government coalition by his party (LeU), which currently has about five senators. He is the "right-hand man" of the former minister and former secretary general of the PD, Pierluigi Bersani, who made him spokesman in the lower house until Matteo Renzi finally dismissed him for not considering him to be trustworthy (the open confrontation between Bersani and Renzi, rivals in the PD's 2012 primary and who today maintain this enmity, was well known). 

Thus, the main problem for Speranza is not his past confrontation with Renzi (who has barely criticised, at least publicly, his management), but that he is a graduate in Political Science in a world as complex as that of the health system (he would surely be less questioned if he were a doctor by profession) and, moreover, he had not known, until he was appointed head of the health system, any other life than that of a parliamentarian. In fact, at the time of becoming the new minister of the corresponding branch, Speranza had not even been a deputy minister or undersecretary in previous governments. Conte has permanently covered his back and has taken charge of the management of the epidemic, but Speranza's profile is still too low (and furthermore his party is not very relevant in the current coalition) to be able to remain at the head of Healthcare for much longer. It is clear that he has managed the first "wave of coronavirus" well, but also that the "second wave" will be bigger words to which Speranza will hardly be able to respond as he did with the first.

And the third man whose name may soon be in question is Roberto Gualteri, Minister of Economy and Finance. Paradoxically, he is the member of the executive who Matteo Renzi supports most, which is not insignificant considering the natural tendency of the former prime minister and now senator for Tuscany to dissociate himself from government action. In this respect, Gualteri was a very appropriate appointment because of the need to recover the connection lost during Di Maio and Salvini's time with the Community authorities, since Gualteri had already been working on economic matters in the European institutions for a decade. He was able to approve the General State Budget (GSB) for the current year without major obstacles, and everything seems to indicate that the growth data for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2020 will be very positive.

But this does not detract from the fact that Gualteri is a politician (not only did he not study economics, but he is actually a historian by training) who can do well in the Community world, but who has no influence with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and it should not be forgotten that his country has the highest national debt over GDP in the whole of the European Union and that the risk premium, although much lower than in the times of Salvini and Di Maio (from over 310 points to around 140 basis points), is still very high. And here it is true that his replacement may be clearer than ever, as President Mattarella has great confidence in the figure of Cottarelli, the former chief economist of the IMF who was on the verge of becoming prime minister at the end of May 2018 owing to the apparent impossibility of Five Stars and League reaching a government agreement. In the end it was not necessary for Cottarelli to lead a non-political government, but it was clear that Mattarella had him in mind and could call on him again at any time, as the other card to play (the prestigious former president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi) has already made it clear that he prefers to wait quietly at home for his call at the end of January 2022 to become the new president of the Republic, the perfect end to an impeccable career.

As we have said, for the time being Sergio Mattarella does not wish to hear about a possible change of government. But the fact is that Matteo Salvini's attacks are constant and increasingly harsh; that the country has been experiencing a daily positive rate of around 30,000 for over a week; that the street is more uprising than ever, particularly in the areas where there is the most underground economy; that unemployment is expected to rise considerably; and that the Five Star Movement, with its permanent drain of MPs (fourteen have already left for the Mixed Group in the Senate), has left the former "maggioranza" of the government with a non-absolute, but only simple majority. In other words, if the current coalition continues to govern it is because for the time being it has more senators than the centre-right, but it remains to be seen how long this situation can be sustained.

President Mattarella has the last word: in his almost six years as president he has only had to appoint three governments. The first, presided over by Paolo Gentiloni, was appointed by Matteo Renzi, who controlled the parliamentary majority at the time; the second, although it involved three months of negotiations, in practice it was only a matter of time owing to the need for both Five Stars and the League to come to power; and the third, born in September 2019, also ended up being easy because the last thing that both Five Stars and PD wanted to risk was going to an early election in which the centre-right led by Matteo Salvini would surely have won. Can there be a last government in which Mattarella would be the main forger of the government? Time will decide, but times are coming when the European Union's third largest economy must put at the head of its government what it has best. And the current Executive, although it has functioned reasonably well, does not give the impression of having the best of the best.

Pablo Martín de Santa Olalla Saludes is a researcher at the "Civismo" Foundation and author of the book Italia, 2013-2018. Del caos a la esperanza (Madrid, Liber Factory, 2018).