Italy's "yes" to the SSM, the definitive surrender of the Five Star Movement

After over a year of constant refusals, the reform of the EHM that was approved at the end of last year can finally begin to be implemented, having received the definitive "yes" from the only country within the so-called Eurogroup that refused to do so, which was none other than Italy. This refusal was due to the immovable position of the Five Stars Movement, the main member of the four-party coalition that currently governs the country. In practice, this means the definitive surrender of a decomposing party that is inexorably moving towards its demise, which will take place when the next general elections are held. And at the same time there has been a clear victory both for the second party in the coalition (the Democratic Party) and for the main supporter of the implementation of the MES, none other than the former prime minister Matteo Renzi.

In fact, this five-star "yes" was only a matter of time. The "no" he said for over a year reflected a position of confrontation with the European Union that made sense when his government ally was not the PD but the Lega of Matteo Salvini, known for his open opposition to the current European construction. But having gone from being with a party that was aligned with the main anti-European formations (Alternative for Germany, Swedish Democrats, etc.) to one that was fully committed to the European Union (we are referring, of course, to the centre-left formation), it made no sense to continue to stonewall the EU authorities. In fact, the anti-European position of Five Stars was something that Salvini had allowed himself to be dragged into at the time, since before the two signed the famous "government contract" (May 2018) that allowed them to take over the presidency of the European Parliament´s Committee, this party had tried in vain to join the ranks of the Liberal group in the European Parliament, in addition to the fact that they had never been with the anti-European formations that were friends of Salvini's Lega.

What is more, while the now former deputy prime minister spoke openly of the country's advisability of leaving the EU, what the Five Star Movement was doing instead was calling for changes in matters such as, for example, migration policy: that is, its natural position was to reform from within, not to bring it down from outside, as the leader of the Lega intended. But one question was not to follow the policy of the PD (and even less so the line defended by Matteo Renzi, the person of the entire centre-left whom they have always detested most), which had led him to oppose giving the "go-ahead" to the application of the MES despite the fact that the other three parties (PD, Italia Viva and LeU) had been crying out for it for months, and another quite different one was to continue in the unreasonableness in which they had been involved for some time. 

Where are the keys to the Five Stars' change of position? The first is in the generosity with which the community authorities have behaved towards the coalition since the PD began to form part of it. Because, after having had Mario Draghi at the head of the European Central Bank for eight years (2011-19), it seemed clear that, given the country's importance in the construction of Europe (it is the third largest economy in terms of GDP after Germany and France), Italy should have been given a good commissioner when President Von der Leyen had to set up her new team. However, it was not necessary to give her one of the best, as the country has been a constant headache for years owing to its very high level of debt and its anaemic economic growth (to the years in which there has been a recession, such as 2009, 2012 and 2013, should be added those in which there has been growth of between half a point and a point and a half, which is the case of most of them). However, the Community authorities decided to give it one of the two most important Commissioners: that of Economic Affairs, the most relevant one together with Competition.

The amount received by the country within the so-called European Reconstruction Fund has also played an important role: of the 750 billion that was distributed, the Italians took no less than 209 billion, almost 30%. This is in addition to other funds such as the SURE for the issue of unemployment, as well as its increasingly decisive role in decision-making by the Community authorities.

But the really decisive factor in the transfer of Five Stars has been that the party has less and less relevance in the so-called political "maggioranza". It is true that this party alone holds more seats than PD, Italia Viva and LeU combined, but it is equally true that without them it would no longer be able to control the government and that, given the impossibility of returning with a Salvini that literally knocked them over almost a year ago, this would have led to an early election that would have been the definitive debacle for Five Stars. It should be remembered in this connection that the electoral law with which he went to the March 2018 elections (known as the "Rosatellum bis") remains in force, and this law favours the parties that are running in coalitions. 

In the case of Five Stars no one would have formed a coalition with them (because the PD, although it has run with them in some elections for regional government, will surely merge with LeU to bring together the entire left vote) and, knowing that its only real candidate (Alessandro di Battista) will probably run with another party and that Prime Minister Conte will not accept being head of the bill (why would the jurist risk such a defeat after more than two and a half years as prime minister? Much to lose and very little to gain), Five Stars risked revalidating a maximum of one-third of the current parliamentarians, and these are not going to give up, as well as continuing to live off politics when the legislature has more than two years to go.

Add to this the need to finance the vaccination of some 60 million inhabitants. Accepting to be under the SSM (which basically means no more than deepening the Banking and Monetary Union) will mean receiving immediately around 37 billion, which is very much needed for such an indebted country. So the party that was thinking of changing the transalpine policy had no choice but to give up and end up accepting. And it must not be forgotten that, in reality, everything that has happened was, in fact, only a matter of time: However much they wanted to have sold themselves as the party of honesty, the group laid the foundations for its huge victory in March 2018 over a gigantic lie, which was that up to five million Italians would receive a subsidy worth 780 euros (the so-called "citizenship income") when they knew full well that the European Union would never accept it because, in addition to entailing a very high cost, it was in fact no more than a mere purchase of votes. And this "citizenship income", which was applied but never reached the promised figure, is, moreover, now running out of time, and Five Stars was losing its main asset to the electorate.

It is the definitive surrender of a party that is incapable of governing and was only made possible by the tremendous disaffection that exists and continues to exist towards the political class. I am sure that at this point the PD's top leadership and, above all, Matteo Renzi, will be smiling mischievously: the Five Stars' "yes" to the MES constitutes the "vendetta" that both sides have long been waiting for. It was just a matter of waiting, and the moment has finally arrived.

Pablo Martín de Santa Olalla Saludes is a Doctor in Contemporary History and author of the book Italia, 2013-2018. From chaos to hope (Liber Factory, 2018).