What happens to the Five Star Movement?

At the time, they were a major shock to the Italian political scene. In fact, already in the February 2013 elections they were the third most voted formation after Forza Italia and the Democratic Party. It is true that they did not make a good start in the Italian Parliament, as in a matter of months they lost a good number of deputies and senators, who went straight to the Mixed Group. But after a few months the situation began to calm down. At the same time, two figures began to stand out clearly: Alessandro Di Battista, the scourge of the lower house of the centre-left governments, and Luigi Di Maio, who at 27 years of age managed to be appointed Vice-President of that same house. This peculiar formation, which preferred to be called a "movement" rather than a "party", gradually took hold. The natural attrition of the centre-left (and in particular of the Renzi government, which was in charge of the presidency of the Council of Ministers for most of the 2013-18 legislature) was compounded by the division within the centre-right, with an emerging Matteo Salvini but still without the strength it would have long since.

Thus, the main blow came in the municipal elections of 2016. Virginia Raggi, a young lawyer who had been a member of the opposition for years, won a second round ("ballottaggio") with the mayor of the country's capital (Rome). The task before her was not easy: the city council of the nation's main city was heavily in debt (around 12 billion) and, moreover, during the time of Mayor Gianni Alemanno (2008-13), the Mafia had entered into the city's activities. Even so, Raggi, who was criticised at the beginning, managed to hold on to his position as head of the city, and this is how he is expected to arrive at the end of the legislature, in 2021.

On the other hand, the party made a very tough opposition to the centre-left governments, particularly against Prime Minister Renzi, making all kinds of accusations against him, including his own family. And they managed, with the invaluable help of other forces, to overthrow him in December 2016 on the occasion of the constitutional "referendum" that Renzi had promoted since his arrival in power. While Paolo Gentiloni, Renzi's successor at the head of the Executive, completed the legislature, the formation decided who should be its head: Luigi Di Maio, when more than one within the formation expected that the elected one would be Di Battista, with much more character and pull among his voters.

When the time came to hold new general elections, and with a country in deep unrest (particularly because of the migration issue), the Five Stars Movement presented itself with a measure that would prove to be very popular among some of the voters: the "citizenship income", a kind of allowance for people without a job, which would reach 780 euros, considering it feasible that up to five million people could benefit from it.

So the party literally swept the March 2018 elections: although it is true that the centre-right coalition won, with about 37% of the votes, the reality is that by individual formations the most voted party by far was precisely the Five Star Movement, with almost 33% of the votes counted. The second most supported party (Matteo Renzi's PD), had come within fourteen points of Five Stars. But from this point on, the problems for this party would begin, revealing all its shortcomings.

The first mistake they made, though perhaps inevitable, was to ally themselves with the Lega of Matteo Salvini, a man who had spent a lifetime in politics: He had been a councillor in the capital of Lombardy, a member of parliament and an MEP, and his party, currently the oldest in the country (Umberto Bossi founded it in 1987), formed a compact bloc around its leader, who had carried out a very effective renewal of the electoral lists as well as the discourse of the formation (from "thieving Rome" and "Padania" to "Italy for the Italians"). Already during the negotiation of the legislature pact (known under the pompous name of "government contract") it became clear that Salvini would do whatever he liked with the leaders of Five Stars, and very particularly with Luigi Di Maio. In fact, despite the fact that his training had obtained almost half the votes, Salvini managed to have the same status as Di Maio: Deputy Prime Minister, as well as Minister of the Interior, the portfolio in which he could show off most immediately given the country's boredom with the European Union, which had left him alone in the matter of receiving and distributing irregular immigrants. Furthermore, the new Minister of Economy and Finance (the independent Giovanni Tria) was put there by the Lega, not by Five Stars.

Logically, Salvini did allow the name of the new Prime Minister to come from the ranks of Five Stars. But the chosen one was not Di Maio (in the country the fact that all the "premiers" had a university career still weighed heavily, which Di Maio did not), but a Professor of Law at the University of Florence, Giuseppe Conte, who knew nothing about high politics. The consequence of this is that, during the year of the government coalition, both Conte and Di Maio were two real toys in the hands of the very skilful Salvini. Moreover, by that time Salvini had already been leading the polls in terms of voting intentions for months: in September 2018, only three months after the Conte-I government was in place, he was already the country's most valued leader. And this translated into overwhelming victories in the different elections for the region that were held: Abruzzo, Basilicata, Sardinia... Until the European elections in May 2019, the tables were turned: now the five-star movement's Legion was doubling in number, something simply unthinkable a year earlier.

Although Salvini's attempt to overthrow the government in August 2019 would backfire (his problem was that he was now blocked by another politician as skilled or more than him, Matteo Renzi, who allied himself with Five Stars when nobody expected it, but it is now known that the Tuscan politician is a specialist in reinventing himself), the rise of the Lega and fall of Five Stars continued to be the constant in national politics. This could be seen in the Umbria elections (October 2019), the umpteenth overwhelming victory of Salvini, who in January the following year almost took over a whole stronghold of the PD (Emilia-Romagna, birthplace of most of its leaders) and also came to control the southern region of Calabria. By that time Di Maio, who had become a secondary minister (foreign affairs) in the second executive headed by Conte and had lost his status as deputy prime minister, had already resigned as party leader.

Since then, this formation has only been a burden on transalpine policy. And all this has clear explanations. Firstly, at a time when strong leaderships were in place, this group did not have its own: it could have had Di Battista, but it preferred to choose Di Maio, who has neither substance nor training, let alone character. Second, it does not really have a government programme: its main offer, which was the "citizen's income", has never reached the amount discussed, let alone the number of beneficiaries, and apart from that it has nothing else to offer, constantly wandering off. Thirdly, it has split into many factions: those who want to continue governing with the PD, despite the fact that this entails a clear following of its policies; those who, on the contrary, would like to break with the centre-left formation, but who find themselves with a Di Battista who is marginalised from decision-making and who furthermore does not have the status of a parliamentarian; and a clear majority that has already decided to give up and prefers the legislature to last as long as possible because they have become accommodating to politics and the gabels that it entails (including a very high income, the best in the whole European Union).

Although there is still room for improvement (the legislature does not officially end until February-March 2023), it seems that the Five Star Movement will be remembered today only for having managed to reduce the number of national parliamentarians (its "taglio" of almost 350 won overwhelmingly in the "referendum" held on the third weekend of September). It is clear, once again, that it is one thing to be in the opposition and quite another to govern, and of the latter the leadership of this peculiar formation has proved to have very little knowledge. This is something that the voters have long been aware of and which has led them to demand the arrival in power of the centre-right, always in the lead (and very clearly) in all the polls .