Could the next Pope be Spanish?

The Pole Karol Wojtyla broke the long chain of Italian Popes who had occupied the chair of St Peter uninterruptedly for several centuries, and took the name John Paul II when he was elected in 1978. The German Joseph Ratzinger succeeded him in 2005 with the name Benedict XVI. And he, for the first time in history, was succeeded by a Pope from the so-called third world, an Ibero-American, the Argentine José Mario Bergoglio, who took the name Francis at the time of his election in 2013. The last Spanish Pope was Pedro de Luna, Benedict XIII, almost seven hundred years ago.

Given the geopolitical cataclysm we are currently experiencing, and contrary to the idea that the next Popes would be Asian and African, everything points to Europe once again becoming the epicentre of Catholicism's ecclesiastical leadership.

Christian ideology was born in the Near East, in biblical lands, certainly; but its expansion, affirmation and edification took place in Europe. The current global upheaval would require that it is once again in the old continent where it is affirmed and defended against the theories of its necessary and inevitable fall and destruction.

So, could a Spaniard be the next Pope?

The leadership of the Church of Rome today, the College of Cardinals, is made up of 252 cardinals: 138 are electors and 114 are non-electors. The difference is only a matter of age. Once they reach the age of 80, cardinals lose the right to vote and to be elected. 

It is also true that the aforementioned College of Cardinals is increasingly universal and younger: 94 countries are represented and the average age of cardinal electors is 69.

If the Conclave were to be convened at this time, 138 cardinal electors and eligible cardinals would participate. However, throughout 2025, 13 of them would turn 80 and would no longer be eligible. Among them are the Spaniards Carlos Osoro, Antonio Cañizares, Fernando Vérgez and the Franciscan Celestino Aós Braco, who the Vatican counts as Chilean.

Spain is the third country in terms of the number of members of the College of Cardinals, with 13 cardinals accounted for by Spain and 4 by other countries, behind Italy which has 48 and the United States 17. However, if the Conclave were held today to elect a new pope, only eight Spaniards could participate and vote, as they are under 80 years of age: Antonio Cañizares, Juan José Omella Omella, Carlos Osoro Sierra, Fernando Vérgez Alzaga, José Cobo Cano, Cristóbal López Romero, a Spanish national naturalised Paraguayan who the Vatican places as representing Morocco, the Franciscan François Xavier Bustillo Rípodas registered in France, and the Salesian Ángel Fernández Artime. 

The two Spaniards who sound like papabili are Carlos Osoro and François Xavier Bustillo. The former, Archbishop of Madrid, has an evangelising profile, is a good manager and, although closer to the Christian concepts of the traditional Spanish and European right, promotes an attempt to seek dialogue between all political colours. ‘We must not build walls, but bridges’ is his motto.

The second, the bishop of Ajaccio, the capital of Corsica, has a modern, populist profile and has surrounded himself with people close to the Corsican identity movement Mossa Palatina, who are closer to the followers of Donald Trump than to the old pro-European Christian Democrat or Social Democrat caste . He advocates dialogue and the goal of saving Christianity in Europe. 

The first son of an electrician from Castañeda, in Cantabria; the second, the son of a soldier in Pamplona. Both have been appointed by Pope Francis, to whom they consider themselves very close. 

I met Carlos Osoro at the seminar for late vocations at the Colegio El Salvador in Salamanca. We were there the same year. A serious and intelligent young man, he could be found either at Gregorian chant rehearsals in the chapel or on trips to the Santa Teresa reservoir.

I particularly remember the day he received the ecclesiastical rank of Deacon. The College experienced unprecedented turmoil. The rector Ignacio de Zulueta Pereda-Vivanco, his deputy José María Setién Alberro and the spiritual director Francisco Javier Álvarez de Toledo y Mencos were literally running from top to bottom. There were reasons for this.

Mid-morning a procession of several cars with their corresponding escort arrived at the school, in which the then Prince Juan Carlos, later King of Spain, arrived. I think they came from Portugal, where his father Don Juan lived. Don Ignacio had been the prince's tutor and they had a close relationship; and Don Javier belonged to a family of the Spanish palatial nobility, of ancient lineage. Both wanted the future king of Spain to be present on the day of the ceremony. What we novices took as a message was that Carlos Osoro and the other new deacons were true pupils of Don Ignacio and Don Javier.

History on a large scale is often written in small print. Pope Francis has not held his own Second Vatican Council, but he has certainly brought an aggiornamento to the ecclesiastical machine. He has appointed four out of five cardinals. The future Pope will be his legacy. Will a Spaniard be able to continue his work?