Donald Trump's return will provoke turbulence in the western Mediterranean
One of the firm objectives of the new Republican administration is to reactivate the Abraham Accords, established in 2020 with the signing of a peace agreement between the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan with Israel in the White House and announced from the Oval Office by Donald Trump. A month and a half later, Morocco signed a re-establishment of diplomatic relations with Israel, de facto joining the Abraham Accords. This historic agreement was only the beginning. It was to be completed by the accession of the Gulf monarchies, especially Saudi Arabia.
But the Abraham Accords were not a priority for Democrat Joe Biden, which set the stage for the regional powder keg that erupted with the Hamas movement's attacks on Israel and the Hebrew state's warlike response first against Gaza and later against Lebanon and Syria. Symbolically, one could say that Trump proposed a ‘Pax colloquiorum’ and Biden a ‘Pax belli’, dialogue versus arms, a negotiated solution versus the peace of the cemeteries.
Donald Trump wants to revive bilateral agreements between Arab countries and Israel. Before entering the Oval Office, he had already succeeded in getting Israel to sign a ceasefire with the Hamas movement and the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. But his project will encounter difficulties in the western Mediterranean.
Morocco, which has already signed its commitment to the Abraham Accords, re-establishing relations with Israel, will be the key country on which Trump will rely. Opposing him are Algeria, hostile to the accords, and Spain, whose policy in the Israel-Palestine equation causes the White House to distrust it. It is more than likely that Marco Rubio, Donald Trump's foreign policy handler, will rule out both Algeria and Spain from the US diplomatic track.
With Algeria, the re-created Trump administration has commitments on security issues and a preponderant presence of US energy lobby companies in Algeria's hydrocarbon exploitation. In reality, it is Algiers that depends on Washington for its survival, so Abdelmadjid Tebboune's regime will never be a problem for Trump.
With Spain, Donald Trump seems to want to practice the empty chair. Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is off the US agenda, both towards the Middle East and Europe. Sánchez's unilateral recognition of the Palestinian state and condemnation of ‘Israeli genocide in Gaza’ did not make a dent in the Biden administration, let alone with Donald Trump. With military bases in Spain assured (no government would dare question them), the White House will sideline the Spanish government even though they are ‘strategic partners and friends’. The new ambassador, Benjamín León Jr., will come to Madrid with a full Ibero-American agenda. This is a situation that could change with a new government in Spain, presumably from the Popular Party, which Washington would see as more loyal and on which it could count.
The Strait of Gibraltar, as such, will occupy an important place in Trump-Rubio's plans. The U. S. Navy has already shown its interest in the Strait tunnel project linking Spain with Morocco, which is expected to be completed in the 1930s. Not for the 2030 World Cup, because ‘deadlines do not allow it’, according to sources close to the macro-project, but during the course of the decade. Donald Trump's team has set economic and military targets around the world, such as Panama, Suez, Gibraltar, Bosporus and Malacca, in order to control world trade in the event of a major crisis.
Relations between the United States and the European Union, with the imposition of tariffs and NATO being up in the air in the event that its European members are reluctant to increase their defence budgets, will have a major impact on Spain, whose government is fractured on this point. Morocco has an easier time of it, given its agreements with the United States and its clean position in bilateral relations.
The foreseeable negotiations between the US and Russia on Ukraine will also affect Spain, which has opted for war as a solution to the conflict. If Donald Trump reaches an agreement with Vladimir Putin on the future geopolitical map of the continent, the European Union, due to its lack of competitiveness in the world market, risks paralysis.
Never before has the arrival of a new president in the United States created such global expectation. Spain, like other countries, will be affected, and its domestic and foreign policy will suffer the consequences of the lack of foresight and childishness that have characterised it in recent years.