The price of electricity, the Ghali affair and fishing in the Sahara

Spanish public opinion is very concerned about the price of electricity; it is less concerned about the uncertain future of fishing in Saharan waters and competition from agricultural products coming from Morocco; and it is very little concerned about the summer soap opera that the Brahim Ghali affair has become. However, the three are closely linked. 

The government and the pro-government print and broadcast media, which is almost all of them, give a perverse image of the electricity issue: they make people believe that the laws of the market are to blame, and that everything possible must be done, lawful or not, to ensure that Algeria continues to supply gas to Spain, including getting the Polisario Front leader into Spain and into a public hospital with false documents. He forgets his own responsibility, the taxes on electricity prices, which are among the highest in Europe, the scarcity of alternative energies because there has been no investment in solar and wind energy, and the fact that while Germany and France have a minimum wage of around 1,600 euros, plus substantial social benefits, Spain does not reach 1,000 euros and benefits are scarce. 

As for Algerian gas supplies, apart from official statements from Algiers, there is no guarantee that the volume Spain needs will be supplied. Algeria, in political retaliation, has said it will not renew the Maghreb Europe Gas Pipeline contract, which leaves the Hassi Rmel gas fields, passes through Morocco and enters Spain via the Strait, extending to Portugal. This pipeline brings some 8 billion cubic metres of gas per year to Spain. The Algerian government promises to compensate for this by increasing the transport capacity of the other pipeline, the MEDGAZ, which links Algeria directly with Spain, and which in autumn will increase from 8 billion cubic metres to 10 billion cubic metres. In other words, it will increase by 2 billion cubic metres. And the remaining 6 billion cubic metres, to compensate for the closure of the other pipeline?

The question is obvious: why does the Spanish government accept Algeria's decision to close the pipeline that passes through Morocco? Does the Algerian government have the right to take decisions that harm third parties, Spain and Portugal? The gas is Algerian, of course, but Spain, like Morocco, has invested in its implementation and in the maintenance of the Maghreb Europe gas pipeline, and such a decision cannot be taken without consulting the parties. 

And what does this have to do with fishing in the Sahara and the Ghali soap opera? It has a lot to do with it. Because the same political interests that want to punish Morocco have been mobilised for months in the corridors of the European structures and in many boards of directors of importing and exporting companies with business in Algeria, so that the General Court will adopt a Resolution that shakes the agreements between Morocco and the European Union, saying that "the population of the Sahara has not been consulted" and therefore these trade agreements are not legal. One step further, and the doomsayers are predicting that Andalusian vessels fishing in Saharan waters will have to weigh anchor. 

Incidentally, two things should be mentioned at this point. Firstly, that the decision taken by the General Court can be appealed before the Court of Justice, which will have the last word, and that will take many months, if not years. Second, the Polisario Front movement has not fared as well as it would have liked, because the European Union does not grant it "legal personality" to claim to be a protagonist in the negotiations, and because the Court in question attributes a certain "representativeness" to it - which, incidentally, has always been accepted by Morocco, which is why it has been negotiating with the Polisario Front for over 30 years - but does not consider it "the sole representative" of the Sahrawi population, which is what the armed group has been pursuing for decades. There are also other "representatives": the Sahrawi Peace Movement and the Jat Achahid group, both of which have been received and listened to by senior officials of the UN Secretary-General; as well as representatives of elected bodies in the territory of Western Sahara - municipalities, provinces, regions - who have also participated in discussions to reach a peaceful, political and consensual solution to the territorial problem. 

That said, the Ghali soap opera will continue to be talked about until the pressure that the Algerian government has put on the Spaniard to get him into the mess comes to light. Who, how and why remains to be clarified. As for the future of the Spanish fishing vessels, it may be simpler than it seems. If there is no agreement between Rabat and Brussels, there may be one between Rabat and Madrid. But it should not be left to the Greek calendar, because in the meantime London is making progress in its strategic relationship with Morocco, in all areas, financial, commercial, transport, energy and military. When the train passes, it is time to jump on it, because it may be the last one.