Pro-independence republicanism in Catalonia is losing steam

Faced with the triumphalist euphoria of some and the self-interested concealment of the sociological reality of others, the figures of the Catalan elections are eloquent: the so-called sovereignist bloc that make up Esquerra Republicana, Junts per Catalunya and Popular Unity (CUP) have lost approximately 718,000 votes; of the 2,080,000 they obtained in 2017, they have only 1,361,500 left.  

The sovereigntist vote is a fixed, solid, militant, passionate vote, and one that does not go to any other party. It is not a defector vote. Simply these absentee votes have boycotted their formations. The pandemic has influenced a little, but not much; it has been the disenchantment and distrust in an increasingly confused future.

In addition to this bleeding of sovereigntist votes, if we add the loss of 131,700 votes that have gone from Catalonia in Common nucleated around the purple party of Pablo Iglesias, it turns out that the set of republican and pro-independence political formations (one goes hand in hand with the other), have suffered a tremendous blow, leaving 850,000 votes along the way. A reality that cannot be hidden. 

Although it is true that they have not been the only parties to bleed to death. The high abstention rate, almost 47% of the electorate, that is to say some 3,600,000 voters who have stayed at home, has meant that the so-called constitutionalist bloc (Socialist Party, Citizens and Popular Party, to which the VOX movement can be added) has also lost more than 764,000 votes; from the 1,902,000 they had in 2017, they have gone to approximately 1,138,000.  

Here, however, two points must be made: the first, the setback suffered by Citizens by losing 950,000, which can be considered historic; and the second, that with only a small increase of 46,000 votes, the Socialist Party of Catalonia has managed to double the number of seats, going from 17 to 33.  The electoral law is not coherent with the sociological reality and the political options of the citizens.  

Asserting that the Catalan pro-independence sovereignism enjoys the majority support of the citizenship is simply false. The so-called tri-party sovereignism (ERC, JxCat, CUP) represents 18% of the total electorate, which is 7,600,000 registered voters; and if we add the hybrid party of Catalonia in Common, it does not reach 20.5%. The rest are political balances and juggling games that the Generalitat and the Spanish Government need to consolidate.