PSOE-Podemos, a coalition government between parentheses

Ever since parliamentary democracy has existed and citizens have elected the parties of their choice at the ballot box, the resulting governments have represented the voters and based their objectives on economic, social, political and cultural goals to be achieved. This is true for single-party governments as well as for those formed by coalitions of parties. 

For this to work, a coalition government must meet two requirements: it must have a programme that responds to the needs of the citizens and the country as such; and the parties that make it up must agree on it, although each one defends it with its own nuances. 

This is precisely what is not happening in Spain. The current coalition government, formed by two parties, the PSOE and Podemos-Izquierda Unida (P-IU), do not agree on any programme for the country; indeed, they increasingly clash on more and more foreign and domestic policy issues; on crucial and strategic foreign policy issues, such as the war in Ukraine, NATO, relations with the United States, with Russia, with Morocco, with Israel, Iran or the Arab World. If it were up to the P-IU, tomorrow the Spanish government would have to recognise the Sahrawi Republic of the Polisario Front and break off relations with the autocratic Alaouite monarchy. The same applies to domestic policy: agriculture, the role of business, the role of social minorities, feminism, relations with the Church and minority confessions, education, the model of the State, the Armed Forces, etc.  

The question that the ordinary citizen asks is, why does a government continue to exist in which its members cannot agree? Each of them has its reasons. 

The PSOE wants the government to last until the next legislative elections. Because it has the upper hand, and when the coalition puts obstacles in the way of its plans, it goes over them and decides them alone; it does the same with the Parliament in which it has an "expanded coalition" made up of satisfying the demands of minority, nationalist or regionalist parties, including those parties that question the Constitution and the unity of Spain.  The important thing for the PSOE is to reach the legislative elections scheduled before the end of 2023. Prior to that, municipal and regional elections will be held later this year. The PSOE wants to run out the legislature and present a positive balance sheet of economic and social achievements, counting on European money.  

As a result of its 'governmental efficiency', the PSOE hopes to win over part of the electorate of the left, Podemos-Izquierda Unida, and Ciudadanos, a political formation doomed to disappear. Some futurologists close to La Moncloa even believe that the PSOE could attract a liberal sector that has so far been anchored in the Partido Popular, but fears that the latter could end up allying with the radical VOX party. To avoid this, they would prefer - always according to the dreams of these doomsayers - to strengthen the PSOE in the centre.  

As for the Podemos-Izquierda Unida (P-IU) duo, they do not want to break up the government coalition for several reasons. First, and perhaps most importantly, because it does not have its own finances, unlike the PSOE. P-IU will no longer be able to count on the generosity of its voters as it did in previous elections to face all the elections scheduled for the rest of the year. It can only count on state subsidies and official incomes, those of its several hundred political officials, from ministers to mayors, as well as a multitude of hand-picked positions in all state administrations. The P-IU formation will get free electoral propaganda, using the platforms offered by the state and the media that live off the state coffers, whether public or private, generously subsidised. The P-IU would go bankrupt if it had to pay for its election campaigns.  

A second factor, closely linked to the first, is that the P-IU has built up a cohort of highly paid civil servants who are unwilling to lose their privileges. The P-IU's political leadership is hostage to this bureaucratic brood. This bunch of upstarts is willing to swallow toads and snakes in order to keep their royal perks. And they think that, by sustaining the coalition government against all odds, they will at least get enough votes in the next elections to keep their posts. "Behind me, the deluge", said Louis XV, foreseeing the social outburst that was to come. 

For all these reasons, it seems likely that the coalition government will last until the elected Houses are dissolved. On the rebound, the P-IU is making a gesture to the PSOE as a "faithful ally", because if the future ballot boxes give Pedro Sánchez's party the chance to return to government, the only party with which it could try to do so is the P-IU.  

All these lucubrations are all very well, but the public will have the last word.