Western Sahara doesn't interfere in Spanish-Algerian relationships

Bilateral relations between Spain and Algeria are based on dozens of historic agreements and commitments between the two countries, the most important of which is the Treaty of Friendship, Good Neighbourhood and Cooperation signed by the two presidents, Abdelaziz Bouteflika of Algeria and José María Aznar of Spain, in October 2002.

Throughout the almost six decades of bilateral relations, ministerial visits, mutual visits of political, economic, commercial, military and technical delegations, as well as high-level meetings between Heads of State and Government, have sometimes been postponed or cancelled, due to specific bilateral problems. But never in the relations between Madrid and Algiers, the differences of opinion about problems outside the bilaterals have interfered. Neither the question of Western Sahara, nor Palestine, nor Morocco, nor the crises in Libya or the Sahel have been an impediment to respecting the calendars of bilateral Spanish-Algerian meetings. 

The postponement of the visit of the Minister of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation, Arancha Gonzalez Laya, to Algeria, planned for this week and set for 5 March, is in all probability due to internal Algerian issues, according to the estimates of Algerian specialists. The issues on the bilateral agenda that are important, such as the issue of the delimitation of marine spaces, energy issues, immigration and the important matter of the Algerian military or politicians who have taken refuge in Spain and are required by the courts in Algiers, are secondary at this time for the Algerian regime.

This week, the Emir of Qatar Tamim bin Hamad al Zani is visiting the Maghreb country, which is considered by the Algiers regime to be an absolute priority. Qatar finds itself at odds with its Gulf monarchical neighbours, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and its relations with them are on the verge of breaking down. Until now, Algeria had maintained a difficult balance between its Gulf allies, but Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are putting pressure on the new Algerian president Abdelmayid Tebun to take a definitive stand for Riyadh and Dubai, the Saudi and Emirate capitals, against Doha, the capital of Qatar. The political and financial support that these two Gulf monarchies gave to Algeria and the commitments made by Abdelaziz Bouteflika to both countries have enough weight to put pressure on the Algerian ally. 

The Emir of Qatar doesn't want to break the bridges with the Algerian power. They have in common the support to the Libyan government of Tripoli led by Fayez Al Sarraj: to the military support given by Turkey and to the financial support of Qatar, is joined the political support that Algiers gives to the government of Tripoli, the only one recognized as such by the United Nations.

However, the fear of the Algerian regime is that if it yields to Saudi and Emirati pressures and distances itself from Qatar, the latter will end up throwing its weight behind Morocco. Qatar supports Rabat's claims on the territories of the former Spanish colony of Western Sahara, and could decide to open a diplomatic consular representation in the city of Laayoune, which would be a hard blow to the political strategy of the Algerian regime and the independence aspirations of the Polisario Front. 

This week a game of chess is being played that is crucial for the equilibrium in North Africa and in the relations of the Maghreb with the Arab countries of the Gulf. This explains why President Abdelmayid Tebún, Prime Minister Abdelaziz Yerad and Foreign Minister Sabri Bukadum will be totally involved in finding a new and difficult geopolitical balance. The visit of the Spanish minister, in the eyes of Algiers, will take a back seat.