Worrying electoral collapse of Islamism in Morocco
The electoral collapse of the Justice and Development Party (PJD), which has led the Moroccan government for 10 years, will create a worrying political vacuum for Morocco. The provisional results, which will not vary significantly in the final results, give the winner as the National Grouping of Independents (RNI) with 97 seats, followed by the Party of Authenticity and Modernity (PAM) with 82, and the historic Istiqlal party with 78. The remaining 108 seats, to complete the 365 seats in Parliament, are shared by a dozen parties and minority formations.
The PJD Islamists were expected to lose, due to the new electoral law drafted to prevent them from sweeping the constituencies considered their most popular fiefdoms, and the erosion of the governments they have presided over in the last two legislatures, unable to keep their electoral promises due to the economic crisis and the devastating effects of the pandemic. The PJD was expected to lose almost half of its electorate, but to keep the support of Moroccan Islamist militants intact. The result was unexpected: the PJD lost not only popular support, but also that of a large part of its militancy.
The hundreds of thousands of votes, perhaps more than a million, that have gone to other parties, in particular the RNI and the PAM, have gone to prop up parties that, in addition to having the support of the Royal Palace, have defended socio-economic development programmes. The popular strata most affected by the crisis expected the PJD to lift them out of marginalisation and uncertainty about their future, and, having failed to do so, they have put their votes and their hopes in parties that enjoy royal support and are advocates of economic development. This was to be expected.
What was not in the calculations of either PJD Islamists or Moroccan analysts was that a large part of the militancy followed the slogans of the semi-legal Islamist movement, Justice and Spirituality, founded by Sheikh Abdesslam Yassin, which called for abstention in the elections. Tens of thousands of voters of the moderate Islamist PJD followed the slogans of the radical Adl Ual Ihsan. This poses a fundamental problem for Morocco.
Whatever decision the PJD leadership makes regarding the next government, presumably headed by the current agriculture minister, Aziz Akhenouch, a multi-millionaire businessman highly regarded in the Royal Palace, the political vacuum left by the absence of a moderate Islamist space in the institutions could prove dangerous.
The opposition that the PJD is called upon to join can only be effective if the Islamist movement resorts to popular pressure, and this will only have an effect if it is generated on the streets. While Morocco's international partners, the United States in the lead, followed by the European Union and Spain and France, applaud the marginalisation of the Islamists, the outcome does not bode well for Morocco's near future. The pressure cooker of the fragile socio-economic situation has closed its only functioning escape valve. It is only a matter of time before the situation becomes intractable and the Palace is forced to intervene.