An axe or a dagger, better than poison

The fact that Alexéi Navalni, the main and best-known opponent who still dares to stand up to Vladimir Putin, was poisoned seems to be beyond doubt, after a series of coincidences and, above all, the fact that the German doctors managed to prevent his death, though this may have serious consequences for his life. That this was the umpteenth attack suffered by Navalni after being subjected to a suffocating Kremlin campaign of harassment and demolition does not seem to offer any doubt either. Also, that such persistence in attempting to wipe it off the political scene first, and even off the map later, is only within the reach of the Office for State Security (FSB, heir to the former KGB), is almost an undeniable certainty. 

In other words, it seems that there is no reasonable doubt that the instigator-"do it but I don't want to know the details", all the capos who detest getting their hands dirty-is Russia's president-zar. The Council of European Union foreign ministers, meeting presently in Luxembourg for the first time since the outbreak of the pandemic, has therefore been obliged to address possible sanctions "against those responsible for the poisoning of the opposition leader Alexei Navalni".  

Fine European diplomacy, now under the command of Spaniard Josep Borrell, has found a reason to start analysing the convoluted technicalities that would lead to these hypothetical sanctions. And what has it found? Nothing less than Russia's possible violation of the legislation banning the use of chemical weapons. Given, therefore, that Navalni was poisoned with Novichok, a substance to which the Russian secret services profess a particular addiction, this will be the path the EU will take to arrive at "the possible elements of a response on restrictive measures for those involved in the attack" (Borrell dixit).  

What would have happened if, instead of using the poison, the FSB had chosen to cut Navalni's head open with an axe or slit his throat with a knife? The question was put to the Spanish representative on the Council, Minister Arancha González Laya, who avoided answering by saying that the only certainty is that he had been poisoned, and of course that violates the ban agreed by the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.  

It is clear that Russia's neighbour is too powerful not to tread lightly on certain standards and principles of international coexistence. And, above all, there are many interests at stake, which could be ruined by being overly meticulous, starting with the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which will directly connect Russian and German territories. This project has put Chancellor Angela Merkel between a rock and a hard place, as Putin's determination to consolidate it is met by protests from the eastern EU countries, formerly fearful satellites of the Soviet Union, supported by Donald Trump's US administration, which has directly urged Berlin to abandon the project.  

The EU, which once believed in bringing a bloodthirsty dictator like Alexander Lukashenko to democracy, finds it easier with the Belarusian leader and his iron circle. After noting not only Lukashenko's return to his worst habits of electoral falsification and relentless repression, the EU Council approved the implementation of the technical and legal process to sanction him. It does, however, provide a loophole for the dictator to agree to "hold new free and fair elections", which would halt the process leading to the sanctions. This is largely up to Putin, in whose lap Lukashenko has taken refuge, urged by the massive internal demonstrations calling for his resignation and the lack of international recognition of his rigged election victory.  

In this case, in addition to his circle of confidence, these sanctions would affect Lukashenko himself, who would be deprived of the possibility of travelling to any EU territory, and any assets he may have deposited or invested in any institution established in the Union would be seized. In this game of interests, convictions and sanctions, it would not be out of the question for Putin to stab him, politically speaking, in exchange for the corresponding compensation from the EU.