Either impunity or bloodshed, Venezuela's dilemma

The ominous message from Hugo Chávez's successor is in reality a desperate plea to international institutions, the United States and the Venezuelan opposition itself to spare him from what under normal circumstances would come his way: a full accounting, in which the enormous number of crimes and misdemeanours perpetrated during his eleven years as Hugo Chávez's successor would come to light. Virtually all the leaders of the so-called Bolivarian Revolution would be brought to justice, accused of the thousands of murders and summary executions carried out against opponents and dissidents. The billions of dollars stolen by handfuls of people would come to light, and pulling the thread, many leaders or former leaders of countries that chavismo-madurismo has showered with gifts and presents, all allegedly, of course, in exchange for their understanding, help and even serving as heralds of the Bolivarian Revolution before international bodies, could also be implicated.

One of the country's most conspicuous persecuted, plundered and exiled figures, the director of the seized newspaper El Nacional, Miguel Henrique Otero, defines it precisely: "The Bolivarian Revolution is nothing more than a programme of unlimited appropriation of the political, institutional and economic power of the nation". A programme that Nicolás Maduro and his henchmen have completed to great advantage, in exchange for plunging more than 90 per cent of the population into poverty and misery and causing the exodus of between seven and eight million Venezuelans from the country.

The enormous loot collected over all these years, with the complicity and simultaneous great exploitation of the Chavista civil service machine, and the assistance of at least part of the army's high command - Venezuela is the country with the highest relative number of generals in the world, placed at the head of companies and entities that have little or nothing to do with the armed forces - cannot now be called into question by democratic elections. Maduro himself recently made this clear to the leadership of the armed forces, promising them that he "would not abandon the presidency of the country under any circumstances".

It would take too long to describe the enormous string of harassment, sabotage and attacks to which the Bolivarian police and armed groups unequivocally at the service of chavismo-madurismo have subjected the Unitary Platform candidate, the 75-year-old diplomat Edmundo González Urrutia, but above all the real strong woman of that candidacy, María Corina Machado. Disqualified by chavismo from being the most visible and powerful face of the opposition, she would be the real winner of an election that might not even take place. Why? It is easy to deduce: when cheating and lying become the habitual behaviour of a totalitarian regime, it is logical to suspect that in the last few days before Election Day there may be some incident or incidents or ‘unexpected’ events that could justify the cancellation of the elections. And even that, once the voting is over, some miracle might occur when it comes to the count, turning a resounding defeat into a comfortable victory.

Although without EU observers, by decision of Maduro and his lieutenant Diosdado Cabello, it could be that everything goes smoothly and on Sunday 28th the voters put an end to Chavism. According to Maduro's own threat, this could only happen if the tyrant had obtained, for himself and his followers, guarantees of total impunity. A clean slate, no review of uncomfortable events of the past, no return of accumulated loot and no return of fortunes stashed safely outside the country.

No less than six months would elapse between the holding of the elections and the hypothetical inauguration of the new president. A period of time so long that there would be time to settle the terms of this hypothetical exit from power in exchange for the total impunity of its leaders, as well as to erase all traces of the many exactions committed by the regime, which have submerged the once richest country on the continent and with the largest oil reserves in the world in the best example of what extreme left-wing populism is capable of when it takes power.