Farewell to the nuclear pact between the US and Russia

In much the same way, on 5 February, the world learned that it no longer has the ‘protection’ of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, known as New Start. 

Neither of the two signatories, the United States and Russia, had denounced it, nor had there been any break between them in this regard. They simply allowed a treaty signed in 2010 and renewed in 2021, which was itself the successor to the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the successive Strategic Arms Limitation Treaties (SALT), to expire. The treaty, now defunct due to pure expiry, had been signed by Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, the latter during the period in which he had exchanged institutional roles with Vladimir Putin so that the latter could return to the Russian presidency without violating the Russian Constitution at the time. 

On paper, the world is now more threatened than yesterday by the possibility of a nuclear holocaust, as there is no international legal brake to prevent either of the two giants from pressing the red button of atomic destruction. This is purely theoretical, as the current Kremlin tsar wields the possibility of pressing it whenever he feels cornered by a decision, usually European, that hits him where it hurts most: economic and personal sanctions. 

The now defunct New Start treaty limited the nuclear arsenal of each of the two superpowers to 1,550 deployed warheads, i.e. those that are in a position to be launched. When the treaty was signed, experts estimated its capacity to destroy the entire planet at least nine times over. And, as if there were anything left to destroy, the treaty also allowed the US and Russia to maintain their arsenal of another 3,000 atomic warheads. 

In the history of these treaties, there was a time when humanity could have been completely rid of nuclear weapons. That was in 1985, when Presidents Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev considered the total destruction of their respective arsenals. That attempt failed because of the hawks in the Kremlin, who were already threatening Gorbachev ‘for exposing the reality of the Soviet Union with such an initiative’, a USSR that was practically bankrupt. The refusal at that time to destroy the nuclear arsenals led Reagan to step up defence spending, a race that the Soviet Union was unable to keep up with and which would lead to its collapse and that of the communist system in 1989. 

That was the end of the Cold War, won by the US in particular and the so-called West in general, a defeat that was described by the then still KGB spy, Vladimir Putin, as ‘the greatest tragedy of the 20th century’, promising himself that he would restore Russia's greatness if he ever had the opportunity to do so. 

According to various sources, both American and Russian, in the numerous conversations that Presidents Trump and Putin have already held, it seems that the issue of extending the New Start treaty has been raised by both, but with the White House leader refusing to reproduce a bilateral treaty that did not include China. Trump continues to show that he considers Beijing his main adversary in his struggle for hegemony, and although Xi Jinping lags considerably behind the US and Russia in terms of nuclear warheads, he seems to have narrowed the gap considerably. 

The three great powers have significantly accelerated their race to conquer space, with the aim of undoubtedly turning it into a launch pad for their new inventions, nuclear or otherwise. In addition, Russia and China have also made significant progress in the development of hypersonic vectors, such as the Oreshnik, capable of reaching any point on Earth in less than 20 minutes. 

For its part, the United States is reportedly focusing on the development of a so-called ‘space shield’, similar to the Iron Dome with which Israel protects its skies from enemy missiles. Coincidentally, the enormous island of Greenland would be the ideal testing area for such a development, and even a permanent installation for the direct protection of US territory. 

For many military analysts, gaining an advantage in the construction of a space shield, which would make the power that possessed it immune, would shatter the still-valid theory of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), according to which no one dares to launch a nuclear attack because they are aware that they could not avoid immediate retaliation, and consequent self-destruction, by the attacked country. 

In addition to the US and Russia, which account for 86% of nuclear warheads and intercontinental missiles, China already has more than 10% of such weapons. Far behind, but with no less ambition, are not only the other nuclear powers (France, the United Kingdom, Pakistan, India, Israel and North Korea), but also those aspiring to become nuclear powers, such as Iran and Saudi Arabia. As Mario Draghi's revered report asserts, ‘humanity is entering a new era’. It remains to be seen how good or bad it will be, and for whom.