Iraq remains trapped in its own loop

Almost twenty years after its "liberation" and three years since the great demonstrations of an exasperated population, Iraq is still trapped in an eternal political loop that prevents it from emerging from the chaos and evident deterioration into which it is progressively sinking. October 1 marked the third anniversary of that uprising against political immobility, elite corruption, poor administration and the malfunctioning of public services, all of which contribute even more to the exasperation of a population that has no way out of its evident lack of hope. That protest movement, which spread to the entire southern half of the country, resulted in 600 dead and 30,000 injured, the result of a violent repression that was only mitigated by the confinement decreed by the coronavirus pandemic. 

This anniversary, marked by new demonstrations and riots, mainly in Baghdad, almost coincided in time with the twentieth anniversary of the "liberation" of Iraq. This, in inverted commas, was the title given by Professor Hayder al-Khoei, who inaugurated with his lecture at Casa Árabe in Madrid the new annual cycle of the Aula Árabe Universitaria, in collaboration with several Spanish faculties. Al-Khoei spoke about the tragic fate that befalls 'a country that, with the neighbours it has, does not need enemies', referring to all those who have always tried to manipulate the politics and destiny of the Iraqis: Turkey, Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia. The first two regularly bomb Kurdish-occupied areas under the pretext of clearing their enclaves of terrorists and de facto annexing control of their regions.

Now, as they did in 2019, a large part of the 42 million Iraqis who risk protesting are demanding the fall of the regime, which, caught in this loop, is incapable of appointing a prime minister a year after the last elections were held.

Since the fall of Sunni Saddam Hussein's regime, which had deliberately subjugated the Shi'a majority, the Shi'a had been gaining in dominance. Soon the figure of Moqtada al-Sadr emerged, around whom the most powerful political conglomerate in the country was forming, while their disagreement with the Iran of the ayatollahs, who sought and still seek to turn Iraq into a protectorate of Tehran, became increasingly evident. These differences have been reflected in the creation of an alliance of several pro-Iranian Shi'a organisations. The confrontation between these two factions of Shi'ism seems irreducible: Moqtada al-Sadr's supporters are demanding the immediate dissolution of Parliament, after storming and occupying it twice, repeatedly denouncing its inability to elect a government, and thus calling for a new election. The pro-Iranian Alliance, on the other hand, demanded just the opposite: the prior election of a government, confident that they would have the most weight in it, before going to the polls again. 

Within this pro-Iranian camp, the most prominent leader is Hachd al-Chaabi, whose paramilitary forces have been integrated into the ranks of the regular army, which they are largely abducting. It is these paramilitaries who clashed with the Sadrists at the end of August, killing 30 people and wounding more than a hundred. 

If the political situation is exasperating, the economic situation is no better: the persistent drought, aggravated by climate change, endemic corruption and the almost total paralysis of the country's reconstruction projects, mean that most young people (almost 50% of whom are unemployed) see no way out other than emigration, legal or illegal, and are once again looking to the European Union.