Israel shakes up the Horn of Africa by officially recognizing the sovereignty of Somaliland separatists

“Israel is exacerbating political and security tensions in the Horn of Africa, the Red Sea, and the Gulf of Aden, and in the Middle East region in general.” This was the immediate reaction of Somali Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre, to the news of Israel's recognition of Somaliland, a separatist region the size of Extremadura, which broke away from Somalia in 1991, when it unilaterally proclaimed its independence following the fall of Siad Barre's military dictatorship, establishing its capital in Hargeisa and cutting ties with Mogadishu.

Over the past 34 years, no country with a seat in the United Nations General Assembly has officially recognized Somaliland, so by doing so, Israel is stirring up a hornet's nest in the Horn of Africa. It brings a country located at the entrance to the Bab el Mandeb Strait, through which a quarter of world trade passes and which connects the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal, out of political and international ostracism.

Beyond the surprise that the news may have caused in foreign ministries around the world, Israel has carefully weighed a decision that is momentous for the entire region. First, it makes Somaliland a co-protagonist in Middle Eastern geopolitics.

It is not difficult to deduce that the new ties with Hargeisa will allow Tel Aviv to access the Red Sea and, consequently, facilitate its fight against the Houthi rebels in Yemen, one of Iran's armed wings in its quest to destroy the State of Israel. In turn, Israel can reactivate its policy of establishing cooperation frameworks through the Abraham Accords and add Somaliland, led by Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullah, familiarly nicknamed “Irro,” to the list. 

As was to be expected, reactions to Israel's recognition of Somaliland were swift, all of them condemnatory to a greater or lesser degree. Djibouti, Egypt, and Turkey were the first to denounce “Israel's expansionist policy” and “flagrant interference in Somalia's affairs.” According to AFP, the African Union (AU) also rejects the initiative “because of the risk of setting a dangerous precedent with far-reaching consequences for peace and stability across the continent.”

However, the most worrying condemnation is that expressed by the Palestinian Authority, which refers to the fact that “Israel had already mentioned Somaliland on several occasions as a destination for the expulsion of representatives of the Palestinian people, particularly those from the Gaza Strip.” In this regard, Mogadishu issued a statement affirming “Somalia's unwavering support for the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people, in particular their right to self-determination and their categorical rejection of occupation and forced displacement. In this regard,” the statement said, “Somalia will never accept the Palestinian people becoming stateless.”

However, the most eagerly awaited reaction, that of the US president, has not been forceful in any sense. The New York Post asked Donald Trump directly if he approved of Israel's recognition of Somaliland, to which the US president replied with a curt “no,” followed by “we will look into it,” before concluding with a touch of irony: “Do people really know what Somaliland is?”

In any case, it is certain that Trump will address this issue in his upcoming meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida in the coming days.

Containing his euphoria, the Israeli head of government limited himself to describing the event “as an opportunity to expand cooperation between the two countries, especially in the agricultural sector.” His foreign minister, Gideon Saar, completed the Jewish government's reaction by announcing that diplomatic relations will be full, with the appointment of ambassadors and the opening of respective embassies.

Meanwhile, in Hargeisa, crowds of demonstrators waved flags of the separatist region, proclaiming “the victory of Somaliland,” a reaction that, according to AFP, is unclear whether it was spontaneous or spurred on by the authorities of this separatist region of Somalia.