A revolution that will be very painful

This is increasingly evident to analysts around the world, particularly in the United States, who are already warning that we are on the brink of a genuine universal revolution, the development of which will be extremely painful.

The issue is simple to state: the combination of AI and robotics will exponentially multiply automation, throwing hundreds, if not billions, of people into unemployment. With each passing day, a new sector is threatened as a whole, adding to the already long list of translators, data analysts, programmers, graphic designers, tax advisors, financial analysts, salespeople, call centre operators, drivers, pilots, train drivers and so on, who will in no way be able to compete with the overwhelming productive power of machines.

The debate is not new, and every major change of direction in history, thanks to the discovery and implementation of new widespread technologies, has resulted in clear improvements in working techniques and the liberation and transformation of former workers, with their corresponding transfer to new jobs and work activities.

All these global historical changes have taken place despite the usual resistance to change, but above all, in many cases, they have marginalised many human beings. In other words, these contingents of people became ‘surplus material’ of humanity, which proceeded to rid itself of this burden through self-purification. Decimating the existing population, the plague and many other epidemics had this purifying effect, although the most common method, due to its consistency and persistence over the centuries, has undoubtedly been war. This entails the most radical of solutions, since, in addition to “getting rid” of a large part of the “surplus” population, it justifies, in its radicalism, ending, if not all, then a large part of the rights that this population enjoyed before the collapse. In other words, the implementation of new orders driven by the emergence of unquestionable technological advances has been achieved through coercion, or more decisively through a final victory after several years of war tragedy. This is especially true when such progress also translates into a potential advantage for a country or alliance of countries over their rivals, because any technological advance is an undeniable factor in favour of their own leadership.

The most optimistic cling to the idea that although most of the jobs and employment we know today will have been destroyed in the next five years, new ones that we do not even understand or imagine now will have replaced the old ones. However, there is a widespread impression that at this point in human history, the destruction of jobs will be much faster and more intense than the creation of new ones, which means that there will be very harsh political and social consequences that will undoubtedly spill over. The transition will therefore be very difficult and will ultimately destroy what remains of the welfare state, which will lack the resources to care for all those who need assistance. 

It is also no coincidence that we are witnessing a constant drift towards authoritarianism throughout the world, at both ends of the political spectrum. The severe crisis that is looming, or in whose early stages we are already immersed, will be fertile ground for the most radical forms of populism to emerge in all their splendour. 

It is also clear that there is a general tendency among the world's population to accept cuts to their freedoms in exchange for a certain degree of economic prosperity and personal security. This model is best exemplified by China, but many Westerners would be willing to accept it. Hence, in addition to Trump, other Western leaders have begun to imitate him, starting, of course, with the easiest part: selling the need to give up rights and freedoms in the name of supposed greater security, while ignoring the other part of the trade-off, prosperity. This is undoubtedly because no one today, not even the United States, can guarantee it with certainty to its citizens.