Spain, with a changed foot in the Sahara

The Spanish Minister of Foreign Affairs was on a tour of the Middle East when Trump pressed the button to publish his tweet on Morocco and the Western Sahara. The prime minister was in Brussels participating in a crucial European Council meeting at which the $140 billion Spain will receive from the recovery fund was committed. And the chief adviser, Iván Redondo, was at the Moncloa preparing the bilateral summit with Morocco that was to be held next week in Rabat, with the delicate task of achieving a very difficult meeting between Pedro Sánchez and Mohamed VI after another very damaging button was pressed to publish on Twitter: that of the second vice-president calling for a referendum on self-determination for the Saharan territories, contravening Spain's position for years and absurdly annoying its North African neighbour, in short damaging our country's interests.

The cancellation of the summit between Spain and Morocco has nothing to do with the situation of the pandemic, because this situation is the same (even better) than a week ago when it was still convened. But the world news launched from the White House has invited the Alaouite monarch to change his plans, and leave the Spanish government with its feet on the ground. It is most likely that Mohammed VI did not receive Mr Sánchez, and the institutional ridicule was only going to be mitigated by some agreement on immigration that would allow Spanish diplomacy to sell the public a minimum positive result in order to reduce the avalanche of boats that have been leaving the Moroccan coast for the Canary Islands for some months. The Spanish descent of the Saharan region makes Spain a major player in everything that takes place there, and a pronouncement such as the one made by the White House is not going to leave anyone indifferent. 

The first unknown is the reaction of other Western governments and the EU. Will there be a cascade of recognitions like that of the USA? Not surprisingly. Europe and its erratic common foreign policy must think about a position on this. Secondly, it should be decided whether this is a coordinated decision with the team of Biden, the president-elect who will be appointed on Monday 14 and invested on 20 January. This is most likely to be the case, and both outgoing and incoming administrations have assessed the advisability of making this announcement a little more than a month before the transfer of powers. Trump is leaving with some major successes in the pacification of the Middle East hornet's nest, despite the fact that the image of his entire mandate is generally portrayed in all the media. He has promoted agreements for restoring relations between Israel and four Arab countries, and has managed to defuse tension with North Korea with his peculiar sense of diplomacy. As for Iran, not even his successor is going to improve America's relationship.