Investment, infrastructure, institutional reforms and exports: the keys to Morocco's economic take-off

1. Infrastructure, investment and exports
2. GDP growth
3. Debt and reserves
4. Unemployment and inflation
5. Risks

In its country report on Morocco, published at the end of November, CaixaBank Research analyses the state of the Moroccan economy, delving into the factors that have enabled it to evolve positively in recent years.

Infrastructure, investment and exports

According to the report, "Morocco's performance has been very good in recent years, driven by investment projects and capital inflows (preparations for the 2025 African Cup of Nations and the 2030 FIFA World Cup, water, energy and transport infrastructure, etc.), but also by institutional reforms, improvements in the business environment and the economy's growing focus on exports (especially tourism, cars and fertilisers), with the EU as the main destination (around 70% of exports)".

As confirmed by the Spanish financial institution's analysis, Morocco's strategy of focusing on an environment conducive to business and investment development, with major infrastructure (Tangier Med port, motorways, industrial acceleration zones, etc.) to attract international companies; a business-friendly climate; and institutional reforms such as the Investment Charter, which promote a tax system favourable to investors.

GDP growth

The report on the Moroccan economy also reveals that the country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth has accelerated throughout 2025, with growth of 5.5% in the second quarter of the year compared to the same period in 2024.

Among the factors that have led to this growth, CaixaBank Research points to the recovery of the agricultural sector; the boost in investment, especially in the infrastructure sector; the improvement in household consumption figures, encouraged by low inflation; and the good results of exports, especially within the African continent itself and to markets such as Europe and China.

According to the report, investment activity has had an impact on imports, which explains why trade balance expectations have worsened. However, strong revenues in the Moroccan tourism sector, as well as remittances and exports of goods, offset the weight of imports.

Debt and reserves

The Spanish financial institution's report also notes that Morocco's external debt will grow to around 60% of GDP by 2030, although the positive aspect is that the average maturity of this debt is high, at more than eight years, and the country has sufficient foreign exchange reserves, equivalent to more than five months of imports.

In addition, since last April, the country has had a two-year credit line from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) worth $4.5 billion (3% of GDP), which would serve to strengthen the economy's external buffers. The IMF itself has highlighted the country's institutional strength in opening this credit line.

Unemployment and inflation

On the negative side, the CaixaBank Research report notes the high unemployment rate (around 13%), which is due to the great social importance of a sector such as agriculture, which, although it has reduced its weight in the Moroccan economy, still accounts for around 10% of GDP.

This sector is still suffering from problems caused by several years of persistent drought, which have affected production levels.

On the positive side, it is worth noting the steady decline in inflation, which stood below 1% in both the general and core indices (excluding food and energy) in the autumn. This has allowed the Moroccan central bank, Bank Al-Maghrib, to reduce interest rates to 2.25% in March in pursuit of price stability.

All in all, the CaixaVBank Research report notes that ‘the economic outlook for the coming years is positive, with the forces currently driving growth continuing (especially infrastructure projects and the greater momentum of private investment, aided by the authorities' reform and development programme)’.

Risks

As for the risks facing the Moroccan economy in the future

The BAM manages the exchange rate under a fixed exchange rate regime with a fluctuation band of ±5%. The dirham exchange rate is linked to a basket of US dollars (40%) and euros (60%) and has withstood the uncertainty of the global environment fairly well. The BAM is expected to maintain this stability in the future.

The changing global geopolitical landscape represents both a risk and an opportunity for Morocco, given its geographical location as a bridge between Europe and Africa.

CaixaBank Research has identified some risks arising from geopolitical changes:

• Foreign trade risk. Although US tariffs will have a limited direct impact (Morocco faces a 10% tariff and less than 5% of its merchandise exports go to the United States), Morocco's high trade exposure to Europe and its integration into the automotive industry's supply chains may pose a risk due to global trade tensions. The Moroccan automotive industry accounts for around 10% of Morocco's total exports, with a high concentration in the EU, close to 80%.
   
• Climate and employment risk. The country also faces the challenge of increasing its resilience to climate change and extreme weather events, the effects of which have impacted the agricultural sector (Morocco has suffered prolonged droughts over the past six years). One of the consequences of this is the transition of agricultural workers to other sectors (agriculture has lost 700,000 jobs in the last five years, only partially offset by the service sector and with the difficulty of retraining workers with low levels of education, relatively advanced age and concentrated in rural areas). Similarly, it is also important to reduce informality in the labour market, especially among women, and high youth unemployment (over 20%) in a country with a young population (the average age is 30).