Marruecos: el mercado inmobiliario padeció una leve bajada en 2022

According to Al-Maghrib Bank (BAM) and the National Agency for the Protection of Land, Cadastre and Cartography (ANCFCC), Morocco recorded a 0.7% decrease in 2022 compared to the previous year in terms of the Moroccan real estate market. This devaluation was the result of a 1.3% drop in residential property prices and a 1.7% drop in commercial property prices, BAM and ANCFCC noted in a recent note on the IPAI and the general evolution of the real estate market. Meanwhile, land prices increased by 0.7% and the number of transactions decreased by 15.4% due to a fall in the sale of flats by 15.4%, land by 18% and specialised property by 9.8%.

The real estate price index (IPAI) was compiled jointly by Al-Maghrib Bank and the National Authority for Land Conservation, Cadastre and Mapping (ANFCFC) based on data from the ANCFCC. These quarterly ratios, which in 2006 had a base of 100, are calculated using the repeat sales method, which helps to address the problem of property heterogeneity. This method only considers properties that have been the subject of at least two transactions in a given period.

This device makes it possible to track national and major city-level developments in property prices in three main categories of residential, land and commercial, as well as six categories: flats (living spaces located in a group building and consisting of one or more rooms), house (single room, without garden, consisting of one or more floors), bungalow (single room with garden), urban land (plot located in urban belt), commercial premises (space fitted out for commercial activities) and office (workspace). 

It should be noted that these metrics are calculated on the basis of data that are discontinued 35 days after the close of the quarter in question, which implies updating historical data, which may be important due to lags between transactions and their subscriptions and/or to integrate assets that were subject to at least a second transaction in the quarter in question. However, such a rigorous methodological approach requires setting a minimum transaction threshold for the calculation, which does not allow the development of indicators for individual cities and/or categories and/or district. 

Specifically, the fall in residential property prices was associated with a 0.3% increase in house prices, a 0.5% increase in private house prices and a 0.3% increase in villa prices. In terms of transactions, volume fell by 3.5%, including flats by 4.2%, houses by 0.2% and villas by 27.5%. Land prices rose by 1.2% year-on-year, while sales fell by 5.1%. For professional property prices, they rose by 0.5%, reflecting an increase of 0.5% for commercial premises and 2.4% for office. Meanwhile, transactions have decreased by 16.2%, due to a 16.8% decrease in the commercial campus and a 12.5% decrease in offices. 

By city, price depreciation was observed in Casablanca 1.6%, Rabat 0.3% and Tangier 1.4%, and an increase in Marrakech 0.5%. The real estate asset price index recorded a quarterly fall of 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2022, with house prices down 0.8% and land prices down 0.7% and stagnating prices for professional use goods. The number of transactions fell by 4.8%, reflecting a drop of 5.5% in residential real estate, 1.3% in land and 6.1% in professional real estate. 

In Casablanca, prices rose by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting a gain of 2.6% for land and a fall of 0.1% for residential properties and 0.5% for professional properties. At the same time, sales declined by 0.7%, as transactions in the residential property market fell by 2.9%. Sales of land and commercial properties were 17.9% and 5.4%, respectively. Overall, in 2022, prices fell by 1.6% and were negotiated. 

In Rabat, prices increased by 0.7%, with residential property prices up by 1.2% and professional property prices up by 6.9% and land prices down by 8.7%. Transactions, on the other hand, recorded a quarterly increase of 10%, in relation to an increase in residential goods by 13.8%, a stagnation in goods for professional use and a decrease in land by 8.7%, for land by 15.1%. For 2022 as a whole, prices fell by 0.3% and transactions by 24.8%. 

In Marrakech, prices stabilised from the previous quarter, with residential property prices down 0.4%, land prices up 0.5% and property prices up 1.5%, as well as goods for professional use. At the same time, trading fell by 3.3%. This reflects a 4.6% fall in residential sales and a 1.3% fall in commercial property sales. Meanwhile, land sales increased by 1.9%. Overall, for the year as a whole, the price index rose by 0.5%, while sales fell by 17.3%. 

In Tangiers, the price index fell by 1.6%, compared to declines of 2.7% in residential prices and 1% in prices of professional goods. Land prices rose by 0.4%. Sales recorded an increase of 2.2%, compared with increases of 0.5% in residential prices and 18.3% in land prices and a decrease of 15.4% in prices of assets for professional use. For 2022 as a whole, prices are down by 1.4% and transactions by 2.3%.