El Banco Central marroquí prevé que el IPC se triplique y el PIB crezca un 0,7%

Morocco's central bank, Bank Al Maghrib (BAM), on Tuesday forecast a "sharp acceleration" in inflation to 4.7% in 2022 from 1.4% in 2021, and a drop in GDP growth to 0.7% this year from 7.3% in 2021, as a result of the country's severe drought and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

BAM stressed "the extremely high level of uncertainties surrounding the macroeconomic projections" it produces, according to a note released after the issuer's quarterly board meeting.

Inflation soared in the country due to higher energy and food commodity prices caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, drought and rising inflation in the country's main economic partners, according to the central bank.

This rise in inflation is paralleled, according to BAM, by a relative resilience of external balances and public finances.

Despite this rise in inflation, the central bank decided to maintain the key interest rate at 1.5%, as it expects inflation to return to a moderate level (1.9%) from 2023.

The note also pointed to a significant decline in agricultural value added and some consolidation in non-agricultural activities, favoured by the significant progress of the collective vaccination campaign and the easing of sanitary restrictions, among others.

Agricultural GDP will register a deficit of -19.8% with cereal production this year estimated at only 2.5 million tonnes, down from 10.3 million tonnes last year.

The note added that in 2023, the cereal crop is expected to reach 7.5 million tonnes, leading to a GDP growth of 4.6%.

As for the public deficit, the bank noted that it has stabilised at 6. 3% despite the increase in public subsidies for the most consumed products such as butane gas and wheat.

The public deficit in 2023 will stand at 5.9% in view of the expected improvement in tax revenues.