La economía marroquí supera los efectos de la pandemia
It could take years for the world's economies to recover to pre-pandemic levels. At least that is what was believed when COVID-19 locked the world in its houses and saw all the stock markets plummet. However, Morocco's end-of-year indicators are not in line with these forecasts, showing economic data at the same level as 2019 and making us forget the blows dealt by the pandemic. Exports have increased sharply and the country's GDP has recovered to 99.5% of what it was two years ago.
In its latest report, the Directorate of Studies and Financial Forecasts of the Moroccan Ministry of Finance shows the strength of a Moroccan economy that seems to have far exceeded many of the forecasts that predicted a slow recovery. The purchasing power of families in the Alawi kingdom has grown, boosted in large part by the good agricultural season, which has closed one of its best seasons in history, which in turn has led to a significant increase in the number of exports.
Moreover, exports have reached figures even higher than before the pandemic. The food, electronics and automotive sectors have raised the export figure by 10% compared to the 2019 reports. These indicators have prompted, among other things, Fitch Ratings, a famous global rating agency, to give the kingdom with a rating of 'BB+'. This designation indicates a relatively low credit risk, demonstrating a stabilising trend in Morocco's economy. Moreover, the implementation of the financial law for the current year follows, according to experts, the upward trend of the Rabat-led economy.
The economic situation of the country presided over by Aziz Akhanouch, although it shows a great image and invites optimism for the year that is about to begin, still has setbacks that must be faced in order not to slow down this trend. The Omicron variant is the main stumbling block to resolve. Its expansion led to the closure of the borders on 29 November and, so far, there is no firm date for its reopening as it will be conditioned by the health situation - it was initially planned for two weeks. Even the special flights chartered by Royal Air Maroc are not taking off from all the desired destinations due to other countries' measures.
Portugal, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates have been able to facilitate the return of Moroccan nationals residing in the Alawi kingdom. However, countries such as Spain have been banned from the list because, according to the kingdom's Ministry of Health, "after observing the travel procedures, it was found that the competent Spanish authorities do not carry out the proper and strict control of the state of health of passengers at the time of boarding at their airports". Flights from the mainland are considered to "pose a threat to the health of Moroccan citizens and undermine the health achievements made".
Aspects such as this, brought about by the new COVID-19 variant, make the good data on Morocco's economy look rather calm. While it is true that Omicron - as the Delta variant once did - has brought some pessimism, "Morocco's fiscal deficit is expected to fall to 6.3% of GDP in 2021 from 7.7% in 2020". It should not be forgotten that, according to the latest indicators, the growth of the economy is not only not going to stay there, but has very good prospects for the coming months.
The crisis situation has led to a suppressed demand for consumer goods and vehicles, so it is expected that, with the gradual recovery of the economy of all families, imports and exports will be boosted and increase by approximately 20% more than they have done this 2021. Thus, Morocco expects a new rise that will make it climb among the best economies on the African continent. Currently, with a gross domestic product of 114 billion dollars, it is the fifth largest in Africa and, if this trend continues, it would not be surprising to see it among the top three in the short term.