Gustavo de Arístegui: Geopolitical Analysis 2 February
Below is an analysis of current global events, structured around key topics for clear and direct understanding, followed by a summary of coverage in the mainstream media
- Introduction
- Iran raises the threat of 'regional war' and escalates against the European Union
- Qatar as a key mediator in regional de-escalation and the Gaza ceasefire
- The European Union enters into a “legal war” with Iran
- India responds to Trump's tariffs with an infrastructure and manufacturing offensive
- Japan: towards a landslide victory for Takaichi and a clear message to China
- Gaza: preparations to reopen Rafah and managing an imperfect peaceful situation
- South Sudan: towards a new forgotten civil war?
- Aviation: Industry facing industrial and geopolitical headwinds
- United States-Cuba: the energy blockade as the next domino in the chain of populist and bloody communist dictatorships in Latin America
- Costa Rica: advance of the conservative right with Laura Fernández
- Media rack
- Editorial commentary
Introduction
The last twenty-four hours confirm a world in ‘permanent friction mode,’ where the combination of open wars, economic wars, and internal pressures is silently reshaping the balance of power.
While Iran is stepping up its rhetoric to the point of labelling all European Union armies as ‘terrorist groups’, it is simultaneously seeking a negotiated solution with Washington, in a dangerously cynical and typically theocratic game.
In Asia, Japan is preparing for a possible political shift that would reinforce its role as a pillar of the free world against China, while India is shielding its economy from the tariff war with the United States.
In the Middle East, Gaza is entering a phase of ‘damage control’ with the possible thawing of the Rafah crossing and, above all, with Qatar's decisive role as a genuine mediator of the ceasefire, while Doha once again demonstrates that it has made mediation its national identity and foreign policy, while remaining one of the most loyal and reliable allies of the United States and the West.
Latin America, for its part, is seeing the energy blockade on Cuba tighten at the hands of Trump's White House and Costa Rica heading towards a right-wing populist shift that will require calm but firm vigilance. All this in a context in which commercial and defence aviation is becoming an early indicator of geopolitical risks and the fragmentation of global trade.
Iran raises the threat of 'regional war' and escalates against the European Union
Facts
Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, has publicly warned that any US attack on Iran would trigger a ‘regional war’, in response to the deployment of significant US naval forces in the region and Donald Trump's statements that Tehran is ‘talking seriously’ with Washington about its nuclear programme.
At the same time, following the European Union's decision to include the Revolutionary Guards on its list of terrorist organisations, Tehran has announced that it considers all the armies of EU member states to be ‘terrorist groups’.
The rhetoric is accompanied by threats of ‘swift and decisive’ retaliation in the event of military action, while various capitals are making indirect contacts to explore a possible channel for negotiation.
Implications
This verbal escalation confirms the deeply destabilising nature of Tehran's theocratic regime, which combines strategic victimhood and military blackmail with its traditional export of terrorism through its armed wings: Hezbollah, the Houthis, Iraqi militias and Hamas.
Turning all European armies into ‘terrorists’ is not just propaganda rhetoric: it is an attempt to delegitimise NATO and the EU in the minds of its public opinion and its authoritarian partners, especially Russia and certain actors in Central Asia.
Washington's position under the Trump presidency maintains a firm line consistent with the policy of maximum pressure: deterrent deployment, credible threats and tactical willingness to explore negotiation if the strategic price is acceptable to the United States.
Outlook and scenarios
In the short term, the most plausible risk is that of a limited clash – an attack on Iranian assets in third countries, or proxy action against US or European interests – which could be managed without escalating into open war, but which would increase tension in the Gulf and the Levant.
In a scenario of strategic prudence, the combination of military pressure and sanctions could push Tehran towards a nuclear containment agreement, provided that the regime perceives that its economic survival is at stake. The worst-case scenario would still be a chain of miscalculations: a poorly calibrated attack, a disproportionate response from a proxy, and an escalation dynamic that drags Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the entire eastern Mediterranean arc into a conflict that is very difficult to contain.
Qatar as a key mediator in regional de-escalation and the Gaza ceasefire
Facts
Qatar has stepped up its diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions between Iran and the West and, at the same time, has played an absolutely essential role in shaping and maintaining the ceasefire in Gaza, working closely with Egypt, other regional mediators and the United States.
Doha has been the central platform for negotiations on the release of hostages, the entry of humanitarian aid and the phased reopening of the Rafah crossing, in coordination with the main Western capitals. At the same time, the Qatari authorities repeatedly emphasise that mediation and peaceful conflict resolution are part of Qatar's national identity and foreign policy logic.
Implications
Qatari mediation is not an opportunistic gesture, but a consolidated state policy: Qatar has specialised in talking to everyone – including actors deeply hostile to the West – to build bridges that no other country could build as effectively. This role does not detract from, but rather reinforces, its status as a staunch and reliable ally of the United States and Western democracies: the presence of the large Al Udeid base and defence agreements with Washington are tangible proof of this strategic alliance.
In Gaza, without Qatar, the ceasefire and humanitarian implementation mechanisms would have been infinitely more difficult, if not directly unfeasible; its ability to gain the trust of the warring parties allows it to unblock issues where others only issue statements.
Outlook and scenarios
In the short term, it is reasonable to anticipate that Qatar will remain the indispensable mediator for both the next phase of the ceasefire in Gaza and any real de-escalation between Iran and the United States.
In the medium term, if this imprint is consolidated, Doha could become a structural part of the security architecture of the wider Middle East: a Western partner which, without renouncing its alliances, has made mediation its national brand and its specific contribution to peace.
The challenge for Europe and the Atlantic world as a whole is to make the most of this asset by integrating Qatar into a strategic design that combines firmness towards the region's authoritarian regimes with the intelligent use of the few intermediaries that can open doors where classic diplomacy no longer reaches.
The European Union enters into a “legal war” with Iran
Facts
The European Union's decision to include the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on its list of terrorist organisations has triggered a mirror reaction from Iran, which has declared all the armies of the Member States to be “terrorists”.
The European measure follows the path laid out by the United States and reflects a growing consensus on the terrorist nature of the military-ideological apparatus that sustains the Iranian theocracy. Tehran's response, although legally ineffective outside its territory, elevates the confrontation to the symbolic and political realm, complicating diplomatic and consular channels.
Implications
This dynamic ushers in a phase of ‘legal warfare’ in which terrorism designations are used as instruments of political pressure, but also as a basis for financial sanctions and movement restrictions. For Europe, it means finally abandoning a certain complacency towards a regime that has amply demonstrated its involvement in attacks, assassinations of opponents and financing of terrorist groups in the region.
For Iran, the European decision exacerbates its isolation, complicates access to financing and accelerates the departure of Western companies from its strategic sectors, which may translate into greater internal instability and, potentially, more repression and externalisation of violence.
Outlook and scenarios
In the short term, we are likely to see a reciprocal hardening of positions: more European sectoral sanctions, travel restrictions on Iranian leaders and potential Iranian responses in cyberspace or through proxies.
In the medium term, the real test will be the EU's internal coherence: whether it maintains this line over time, coordinates with Washington and London and strengthens its defence of Iranian dissent, or whether it falls back into the mirage of “economic openness” with a theocratic dictatorship. In the optimistic scenario, this firmness, well coordinated with the United States, could strengthen the Atlantic front and send a clear message to other authoritarian regimes about the costs of embracing state terrorism.
India responds to Trump's tariffs with an infrastructure and manufacturing offensive
Facts
India's Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, has presented a budget that increases capital spending by around 9%, with sharp increases in infrastructure, manufacturing and support for local industry, against a backdrop of 50% US tariffs on certain Indian products.
According to the minister herself, the budget seeks to strengthen resilience in the face of global volatility, increase productivity and position India as an alternative hub amid the fracture of global supply chains. The narrative in the Indian press emphasises that the country is ‘gaining muscle’ to negotiate with Washington on better terms, without renouncing strategic cooperation.
Implications
India's response confirms that a tariff war does not necessarily lead to defensive protectionism, but can catalyse pro-growth reforms when political leadership is committed to the market economy and investment in productivity.
From an Atlantic perspective, strengthening a democratic India, committed to the rule of law and called upon to be a counterweight to China in Asia, is a strategic priority, compatible with tactical tensions on trade issues. The Indian government's approach contrasts with the victimhood of many Western leftists, who simply blame ‘neoliberalism’ instead of taking advantage of the turmoil to modernise their economy.
Outlook and scenarios
In the best-case scenario, the 2026 budget will accelerate investment in infrastructure and advanced manufacturing, consolidating India as the preferred destination for industrial relocations fleeing China's opacity and political risk. In the short term, however, the combination of cross-tariffs and political pressures may generate friction, requiring sophisticated economic diplomacy on the part of New Delhi and Washington. If India perseveres with its reforms, it can become a pillar of the liberal Indo-Pacific architecture, provided it maintains its commitment to fundamental freedoms and does not drift towards internal illiberal temptations.
Japan: towards a landslide victory for Takaichi and a clear message to China
Facts
A survey by the Asahi newspaper indicates that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's party is heading for a landslide victory in the upcoming elections, with a wide lead over the opposition. The polls indicate that Japanese public opinion supports an agenda that combines fiscal responsibility, strengthening national defence and continuing the strategic alliance with the United States and other Western partners. This possible election result comes at a time of growing Chinese pressure in the East China Sea and the Western Pacific, as well as intensified regional rearmament.
Implications
A solid victory for Takaichi will reinforce Japan as the backbone of the containment mechanism against Chinese expansionism in Asia and the Pacific, from the Nansei Islands to cooperation with Australia and India.
For Beijing, it would be an unmistakable sign that military intimidation and economic pressure have failed to fracture Japanese consensus on security. For Europe and the Atlantic world, the message is equally clear: the eastern flank of the system of liberal democracies is being consolidated, not weakened, which is essential for the stability of trade routes and technology supply chains.
Outlook and scenarios
If the landslide victory is confirmed, Takaichi is likely to have room to deepen defence policy reform, toughen the stance towards China and advance security cooperation with Europe, including the European naval presence in the Indo-Pacific.
In the medium term, Japan could play an even more active role in integrated deterrence with the United States, from cyber defence to critical infrastructure protection. The risk scenario would come from a possible Chinese overreaction – more air incursions, more naval presence – increasing the risk of tactical incidents in an extremely congested theatre.
Gaza: preparations to reopen Rafah and managing an imperfect peaceful situation
Facts
Israeli authorities have confirmed that ‘preliminary preparations’ are underway to reopen the Rafah crossing between Egypt and Gaza, with plans to allow limited pedestrian traffic starting on Monday. Israel has maintained control of the crossing since May 2024, and the partial reopening coincides with reports of new air strikes that have killed at least thirty people in Gaza, according to Palestinian sources. International media outlets highlight that this is a step in a gradual strategy to ease the blockade, conditional on the security situation and effective control over Hamas and other armed groups, in full coordination with mediation efforts led by Qatar.
Implications
The reopening, although limited, is an important gesture in the context of a war that has devastated the Strip and seriously damaged Israel's international image, despite Hamas's original responsibility for triggering the conflict.
For Egypt, it means once again assuming a pivotal role between Israel's security demands, pressure from the international community and the risk of infiltration by jihadist elements. The key will continue to be ensuring that the opening of Rafah does not become a highway for the rearmament of Hamas, which remains a terrorist organisation aligned with Tehran's regional strategy, while at the same time preserving the space for mediation and humanitarian management that Qatar has helped to open up.
Outlook and scenarios
In the short term, a highly controlled reopening can be expected, focusing on humanitarian cases, students and certain work permits, with a strong Israeli and Egyptian supervisory component, and with Doha maintaining a constant role as guarantor and facilitator.
If a stable ceasefire is consolidated, more ambitious formulas for reconstruction under international supervision could be considered, linking aid to guarantees of effective demilitarisation. The risk is that, without a clear political framework for the 'day after', Gaza will remain trapped in a limbo of international dependence and security control, a perfect breeding ground for radical Islamism to re-emerge as a false alternative, even despite the serious efforts of mediators such as Qatar and Egypt.
South Sudan: towards a new forgotten civil war?
Facts
The latest reports from the United Nations and specialised organisations warn of a significant escalation of violence in South Sudan, with government military operations against opposition forces and an increase in civilian casualties in areas such as Jonglei state. The UN has expressed its ‘deep concern’ about the rhetoric of some military commanders, who have threatened to ‘spare no one’, in language reminiscent of the worst moments of the civil war. Various sources highlight the risk of the collapse of the current peace agreements and the possibility of the conflict intensifying and becoming regionalised.
Implications
South Sudan embodies the tragedy of fragile states where the combination of predatory elites, ethnic fragmentation and an abundance of weapons turns every political dispute into a potential bloodbath. For Europe and the Atlantic world, the risk is twofold: on the one hand, the proliferation of humanitarian crises that demand resources; on the other, the consolidation of areas of impunity that can be exploited by criminal networks and jihadist groups. International attention remains focused on Ukraine and the Middle East, leaving excessive room for manoeuvre for local actors who have repeatedly demonstrated their contempt for human life.
Outlook and scenarios
In the absence of concerted pressure from the Security Council and the African Union, the most likely scenario is a prolongation of violence, with peaks of intensity and large movements of internally displaced persons.
A serious diplomatic effort should combine selective sanctions against those responsible for serious human rights violations with economic incentives linked to real institutional reforms. The risk of regional contagion – in an environment already marked by jihadism in the Sahel and East Africa – requires South Sudan to be placed on the NATO and EU security radar, even if only as a scenario for prevention rather than direct intervention.
Aviation: Industry facing industrial and geopolitical headwinds
Facts
Leading figures in the aviation sector, both civil and defence, have warned of a combination of industrial and geopolitical headwinds affecting the market: bottlenecks in supply chains, rising material costs and growing political tensions that are reshaping routes and purchasing decisions.
At industry forums, executives and managers from airlines and manufacturers have emphasised the need to adapt to an environment in which the geopolitical fracture of the world is translating into new restrictions, sanctions and security risks. In addition, increased demand for military aircraft, drones and air defence systems linked to conflicts such as the one in Ukraine is altering the production priorities of commercial aircraft production chains.
Implications
Aviation acts as an early barometer of global disorder: each conflict changes routes, insurance premiums, costs and decisions about fleets and bases. For Europe, with its major industrial champions in the sector, geopolitical pressure is forcing it to accelerate industrial autonomy without severing the transatlantic ties that guarantee technological superiority over China and Russia. The boom in military demand, driven by Russian aggression against Ukraine and instability in the Middle East, opens up industrial opportunities, but requires strategic planning to avoid making the industry hostage to short-term political decisions.
Outlook and scenarios
In the short term, we can expect more pressure on delivery times, higher costs and more contract renegotiations, both in the commercial and military segments. In the medium term, the map of routes and hubs could be reconfigured in a more structural way, with greater weight given to corridors considered politically ‘safe’ and increasing penalties for routes that cross airspace controlled by unpredictable regimes. In terms of defence, the convergence of interests between the United States and Europe in terms of rearming and modernising fleets strengthens the Atlantic link and reduces dependence on risky suppliers.
United States-Cuba: the energy blockade as the next domino in the chain of populist and bloody communist dictatorships in Latin America
Facts
President Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on any country that sells or supplies oil to Cuba, prompting Mexico to consider suspending its crude oil shipments to the island to avoid economic retaliation from Washington. Various analyses indicate that the Cuban regime is already facing serious difficulties in securing domestic energy supplies, with frequent blackouts and growing social unrest. The US strategy is part of a broader policy of pressure on Latin American dictatorships, following the previous crackdown on the Chavista regime in Venezuela.
Implications
Turning off the oil tap is shaping up to be a much more effective instrument of pressure than decades of rhetoric and partial sanctions: without energy, the regime's ability to maintain its repressive and clientelist apparatus is rapidly eroding. This course of action, politically driven by figures such as Senator Marco Rubio, fits in with a clear vision: to strike at the economic pillars that sustain dictatorships that have lived off the export of repression and “revolutionary” services to the worst regional Chavismo.
The risk, which should not be ignored, is greater hardship for the Cuban population, but the ultimate responsibility for that misery remains with a regime that has hijacked popular sovereignty and prevented any democratic transition.
Outlook and scenarios
In the scenario of maximum pressure, the combination of energy shortages, inflation and erosion of legitimacy could lead to new mass protests, the repressive management of which could, in turn, reactivate the international debate on the transition in Cuba. If Mexico and other suppliers give in to tariff threats, Havana will be forced to seek more distant and expensive suppliers, or to accept even more burdensome political concessions from its authoritarian partners.
The best outcome, from a liberal centre-right perspective, would be for the energy blockade to accelerate exit negotiations that allow for an orderly transition to liberal democracy, without revolutionary adventures or summary revenge.
Costa Rica: advance of the conservative right with Laura Fernández
Facts
Laura Fernández is close to victory in Costa Rica's presidential elections, with a clear lead in the provisional count, according to international and regional media. Her candidacy, identified as unapologetically conservative right-wing, has capitalised on discontent with the traditional elites, concern about insecurity and weariness with economic management. Initial analyses point to a fragmented Parliament, which will require the formation of alliances in order to govern.
Implications
Costa Rica, traditionally presented as a ‘virtuous exception’ in Central America for its political stability, uninterrupted democracy and commitment to the welfare state, is entering a phase of political experimentation in which the label of ‘right-wing populism’ given to it by the left and some media outlets forces a distinction to be made between rhetoric and substance. If the new government opts for pro-market reforms, fiscal responsibility and strengthening the rule of law, the shift could be an opportunity to modernise the country and shield it from the contagion of Chavism and other regional authoritarian temptations.
Something similar is happening in Chile, where electoral rhetoric is one thing and governing is another. The challenges are significant, and it is essential that Laura Fernández maintains a pragmatic and sensible approach, respecting institutions and fiscal responsibility and keeping her electoral promise to tackle insecurity. Otherwise, Costa Rica's well-deserved international prestige could rapidly deteriorate.
Outlook and scenarios
In the best-case scenario, Fernández surrounds herself with a competent technical team, maintains the Atlantic anchor and strengthens cooperation with the United States and Europe, especially in the areas of security, the fight against drug trafficking and environmental protection. In the short term, the priority will be to observe the composition of her cabinet and her first economic measures, which will determine whether her project is part of a reformist right or opportunistic populism. For the region, Costa Rica's evolution will be an important test case: success would reinforce the idea of a democratic right capable of responding to social challenges without resorting to extremism; failure would fuel the discourse of the radical left against any liberal alternative.
Media rack
NYT / Washington Post / CNN
Iran-US tension, designation of the Guardians and risk of regional escalation. Emphasis on the risk of war and the need for dialogue; certain pieces tend to highlight the dangers of Trump's response rather than the nature of the Iranian regime.
The Times / The Telegraph / The Guardian
Coverage of Gaza and Rafah, with attention to the human cost and humanitarian dimension. Critical approach to Israel on the humanitarian front, with nuances depending on the publication; the role of Hamas is recognised, but often takes a back seat.
WSJ / Financial Times / The Economist
Economic impact of tensions with Iran, Indian budget, aviation under pressure and the situation in South Sudan. Solid analysis of the effects on markets and supply chains; The Economist raises the issue of a possible new civil war in South Sudan.
Le Monde / Le Figaro / Libération
European reaction to Iran and internal debate on the designation of the Guardians as terrorists. Le Figaro tends to emphasise the need for firmness, while Le Monde and Libération focus on the risks of escalation and the impact on the nuclear agreement.
FAZ / Die Welt / Die Zeit
Emphasis on the strategic dimension of the confrontation with Iran and the role of the EU; mentions of Ukraine and pressure on European industry. Generally critical of Tehran and in favour of a more robust European defence policy, in coordination with NATO.
Corriere della Sera / El Mercurio / Clarín / Reforma
Coverage of Iran and the Middle East, with a regional focus; growing attention to Cuba and Costa Rica. Latin America is seen through the prism of the struggle between populisms of different kinds; there is interest in Trump's role in the siege of Cuba.
BBC / France 24 / Euronews
Balanced narrative on Iran–EU, Qatar's mediating role and the reopening of Rafah. They seek a descriptive tone, but with special sensitivity towards the humanitarian dimension in Gaza and the risk of escalation in the Gulf; they highlight Qatar as a key mediator.
Reuters / AP / AFP / DPA
Leading coverage of Iran, India, Japan, Gaza, South Sudan, Cuba and Costa Rica. They maintain a factual approach that serves as a basis for other media outlets; they highlight the cables on the Indian budget, the election in Costa Rica and the pressure on Cuba.
WION / SCMP / China Daily
Focus on Iran-US tensions, India's role and political developments in Japan, as seen from Asia. Chinese media tend to portray the United States as a destabilising factor, while WION emphasises Indian leadership.
Gulf and surrounding media (Al Jazeera, Al Arabiya, Qatari and Saudi press)
The role of Qatar and Egypt in the Gaza ceasefire, coordination with the US and EU, and fears of regional escalation by Iran. The Qatari press highlights Doha's mediation as a sign of national identity; Al Arabiya and other Gulf media outlets acknowledge, with nuances, Qatar's effectiveness as a valid interlocutor for Washington and as a stable partner for the West.
Editorial commentary
What the last twenty-four hours have revealed is a chessboard on which two models are openly confronting each other: that of liberal democracies struggling to adapt to a hostile environment without renouncing their principles, and that of authoritarian regimes combining terrorism, energy blackmail and legal manipulation to survive. Iran today represents the most stark version of the second model: a theocracy that threatens ‘regional war’, declares EU armies to be terrorists and at the same time demands to be treated as a respectable player on the international stage, while arming and financing Hezbollah, the Houthis and Hamas. In response, the United States and Europe must take a firm, coordinated and unapologetic stance, strengthening sanctions, protecting dissent and keeping the door open to negotiation only if it serves to reduce the nuclear and terrorist risk, not to legitimise the regime.
At the same time, Washington's hard-line policy towards Cuba confirms something that many do not want to see: that Latin American dictatorships are vulnerable when their economic lifelines are cut, not when they are given symbolic gestures and feel-good speeches. The energy blockade of Havana and the previous blockade of the Chavista mafia regime point to a coherent strategy: cutting off the financial oxygen to those who have turned their countries into platforms for drug trafficking, repression and ideological export. Here, Europe would do well to abandon its 1960s nostalgia and align itself with an unambiguous defence of liberal democracy, even when the victims of authoritarianism speak Spanish.
In the face of the authoritarian bloc, there is good news that should not be downplayed. India, with its investment- and industry-oriented budget, shows that tariff pressure can be met with more market and more productivity, not with retreat and victimhood. Japan, if Takaichi's victory is confirmed, will consolidate an axis of common sense and firmness in the Indo-Pacific, essential for containing Chinese expansionism. Costa Rica, despite the uncertainty surrounding any populist shift, could demonstrate that a right wing that combines security, fiscal responsibility and institutional respect is capable of offering a real alternative to the Bolivarian drifts in the region. And Qatar is proving, through actions and not just words, that it is a genuine, effective mediator committed to peace, which has made mediation its national identity and foreign policy without ceasing to be one of the most loyal, stable and reliable allies of the West and, in particular, of the United States.
In this context, Atlanticism is not Cold War nostalgia, but a necessity for democratic survival: only a community of free nations, coordinated and willing to defend their way of life, can simultaneously confront jihadist terrorism, Russian revisionism, Iranian theocracy and Beijing's expansionism. Rejecting extremism of all kinds, denouncing wokism when it trivialises security, and combating relativism that places imperfect democracies and unbridled dictatorships on the same level are tasks that cannot be postponed. The world that is taking shape does not allow for moral neutrality: either you are on the side of liberal democracy, the rule of law and the open economy, or you leave the field open to those who conceive of force and fear as the only political language.
