Armenia and Azerbaijan meet in Brussels in search of final peace deal
Brussels was the scene on Wednesday of a key meeting between the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, Nikol Pashinian, and the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, which is expected to finally open a formal framework for negotiations between the two powers. The meeting, which took place under the mediation of European Council President Charles Michel, has sparked optimism in both the Azeri and Armenian governments, with both Yerevan and Baku representatives saying they are pinning great hopes on the talks.
"Armenia once again declares that it is ready to sign a peace agreement with Azerbaijan and start negotiations without delay," said Nikol Pashinian during a meeting with his presidential cabinet. "Both countries must move forward and sign a peace agreement as soon as possible," Nikol Pashinian said, amid rising tensions between the two countries over the Nagorno-Karabakh border region. In the same vein, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has backed Pashinian, underlining his confidence in the meeting.
The EU's efforts to become - alongside Russia - another key neutral mediator in the conflict have sparked debate within the international community. The aid package granted by Brussels to six Eastern Partnership nations in July last year was evidence of the EU's pro-Armenian tilt. However, changes in trade and energy flows caused by sanctions on Russia could prompt the EU-27 to look to Baku for replacements for Moscow's gas.
Just a day before the Brussels meeting, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken held separate talks with both leaders, calling on them not to give up their efforts to achieve peace.
"The Secretary of State expressed his encouragement for peace negotiations, including the meeting of President Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Pashinian with European Council President Charles Michel. He reiterated that the United States stood ready to help, engaging bilaterally and with like-minded partners, including through our role as Co-Chair of the OSCE Minsk Group," a statement released by State Department spokesman Ned Price said.
However, the gradual and subtle shift in Armenian leaders' discourse in recent weeks has - among the country's opposition - raised fears that Yerevan will resign and cede full control of the Nagorno-Karabakh region to Azerbaijan. As a result, Armenia has in recent days been the scene of large demonstrations against the five-point political agreement offered by Baku. The two sides would recognise each other's territorial integrity, promise not to claim territory, promise not to threaten each other's security, demarcate borders and unblock transport links were the issues addressed by the Azeri government.
Pashinian and other officials in his team have said that the proposal would be acceptable as long as the rights of Armenians living in the Nagorno-Karabakh region were guaranteed. This fuels suspicions that he plans to recognise Azerbaijan's territorial integrity, which is already assumed by the international community. An integrity that includes Nagorno-Karabakh.
The territories of Nagorno-Karabakh, now known as the Republic of Artsakh and recognised by Armenia as such, have been a source of rifts and tensions between Baku and Yerevan since the fall of the Soviet Union. In fact, the internationally recognised Azerbaijani territory, inhabited by a large Armenian majority, has seen two wars. A first, lasting six years, between 1988 and 1994, which ended in Armenia's military victory; and a second, lasting just over a month, between late September and November 2020.
The latter conflict came to an end with the trilateral declaration of a ceasefire signed by Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan in November 2020, making Russia the only power capable of mediating between the two countries. To date, Moscow maintains around 2,000 troops in the region.
However, the entry of Azeri troops a few weeks ago into the strategic town of Paruj in Nagorno-Karabakh - usually patrolled by the Russian peacekeeping contingent - provoked accusations from Yerevan against Baku, which it accused of violating the ceasefire. Azerbaijan, for its part, rejected these allegations, citing international recognition of these territories as part of its own country.
The Armenian Security Council has condemned the fact that Azerbaijan is now "preparing the ground for further provocations and an offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh". Ararat Mirzoyan, Yerevan's foreign minister, therefore stressed the importance of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the Minsk Group now that "Azerbaijan is using geopolitical developments" in the world to pursue "a policy of ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh". "An example of this is the Azeri invasion of the village of Parukh in the area of responsibility of the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation," Mirzoyan said.