The Belarusian Defence Ministry has announced the start of a "surprise inspection" of the country's Armed Forces response forces, Belarusian news agency BelTA reports. The aim of the military exercises is to "assess the readiness and ability of personnel to respond quickly to potential crises". Therefore, during the exercises, troops will practise how to "become alert, move to predetermined areas and perform combat and training tasks".
??⚡️??Belarus Lukashenko pulls his military equipment to the border with Poland pic.twitter.com/4P4RF6QWSR
— The RAGE ❌ (@theragex) April 29, 2022
The Defence Ministry statement notes that the units will "operate in unfamiliar areas in a rapidly changing environment". In addition, the number of forces involved in the exercises "will be gradually increased", which, according to the ministry, "will make it possible to test their ability to counter military threats both on the ground and in the air". Minsk warns of the movement of "a significant amount of military equipment, which may complicate traffic on public roads".
"These activities are some of the most effective forms of troop training," says Viktor Khrenin's Ministry. Belarus also claims that these military exercises "pose no threat to the European community as a whole or to neighbouring countries in particular". Last April, the Belarusian army also conducted manoeuvres on the border with Ukraine aimed at 'reinforcing parts of the country's southern border', according to the state news agency.
9:29 local time.
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) February 24, 2022
Russian troops invading Ukraine from Belarus through the Senkivka-Veselivka checkpoint at the Belarusian border.
The world must not forget that Belarus facilitated this invasion too.
Lukashenko is a threat to Poland and Lithuania. pic.twitter.com/4tXx4MhVud
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, both NATO and Kiev have viewed Belarus, Moscow's main ally, with suspicion. Russian troops aiming to take Kiev entered Ukrainian territory through Belarus. Similarly, shortly after the war began, Alexander Lukashenko's government gave the green light for Russia to place nuclear weapons in the country.
With Russian troops in Ukraine at a stalemate in mid-March, experts and analysts highlighted the key role of Belarus, warning that Minsk could soon join the war with Russia. NATO military officials backed this possibility, asserting that it is increasingly "likely" to happen. Even NATO staff told CNN that Minsk could prepare a false flag attack to justify aggression against Ukraine.
Russian troops are being spotted all over southern Belarus. By allowing Putin to attack Ukraine from our land, Lukashenka committed high treason. Now we see officers resigning & fleeing Belarus. There is no support for this war, neither in society nor in the Belarusian army. pic.twitter.com/UDig6H31xI
— Franak Viačorka (@franakviacorka) March 6, 2022
Possible Belarusian actions in the conflict include the possibility that they could cut off Western arms supplies reaching Ukrainian territory or help capture Kiev.
Shortly after the Russian invasion began, Ukrainian intelligence also revealed to CNN that Belarus might be 'willing to participate, perhaps directly'. Following the Belarusian Defence Ministry's announcement, Kiev is backing this idea again. "We do not rule out that the Russian Federation may at some point use the territory of Belarus, the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus, against Ukraine," Andriy Demchenko, a spokesman for Ukraine's State Border Service, told Reuters. Should that happen, according to Demchenko, the country "is ready".
Video of Russia TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS in Kharkiv Oblast firing on Ukrainian positions.https://t.co/sCNVkU8V1o pic.twitter.com/PSLhcQsNSP
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) April 27, 2022
During February, before the offensive on Ukraine began, Belarus and Russia conducted joint military exercises called Union Resolve 2022 near the Ukrainian border. At the time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the build-up of forces on the border was 'psychological pressure from our neighbours'. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also warned that these manoeuvres signalled an imminent invasion.
Military exercises in Belarus increase tensions in the region at a time when the EU is finalising the sixth package of sanctions against Russia, fighting is flaring up at the Azovstal plant in Mariupol and the situation in the pro-Russian Moldovan region of Transnistria is destabilising the region. Moreover, Western political sources have told CNN that Russian President Vladimir Putin may use the day of 9 May - Victory Day - to officially declare war on Ukraine. For Moscow, the current actions in Ukraine are part of a 'special operation'.
#Tverskaya, rehearsal of the May 9 parade in #Moscow #Russia #parade #celebration #rememberance #Victory pic.twitter.com/atDy6cS06m
— Freedom Truth Honor ?? (@FreedomHonor666) April 30, 2022
A formal declaration of war would entail the mobilisation of Russian troops and reservists, an option not ruled out in the UK either. British Defence Minister Ben Wallace told LBC Radio that Putin will change his strategy to talk openly about war.
In addition, Pope Francis recently revealed in an interview with the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán told him that "the Russians have a plan, that everything will end on 9 May" during their meeting in the Vatican on 21 April.
However, analysts such as Oleg Ignatov, Russia expert at the International Crisis Group, consider this step "a very risky decision". Ignatov explains to CNN that a declaration of war "would change the Kremlin's entire narrative". Moreover, in the event of a large-scale mobilisation, many people would show their rejection.
Amazing courage: in Russian-occupied Kherson, Ukrainians took to the street today in protest against occupation and in support of Ukraine. Russians are planning a bogus referendum to create a proxy 'Kherson republic'. All these people risk persecution, torture for their stance pic.twitter.com/FAYPdAZ9Us
— Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) April 27, 2022
Other possibilities for 9 May include Moscow finally annexing the separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk or declaring an independent republic in Kherson, a city in the southeast of the country that was captured by Russian troops in early March. These scenarios are backed by the US State Department, which suspects the Kremlin of planning to hold an autonomy referendum in mid-May on the creation of a People's Republic of Kherson, as well as the annexation of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, according to Europa Press.
