Conclusions on Trump's victory in Iowa
Donald Trump's victory in Iowa confirms more than ever the former president's control over the Republican Party.
- Leader of Republicans
- No clear alternative
- Legal troubles
- New Hampshire appointment
- Biden-Trump duel?
Here are the main conclusions of his landslide victory.
Leader of Republicans
This is the first time Donald Trump has faced the voters' verdict since the 2020 presidential election and his 2021 departure from the White House amid unimaginable chaos.
And the former president got his bet right, crushing his rivals.
According to provisional results, the septuagenarian won more than 50 per cent of the vote in this Midwestern state.
"Trump is the candidate who dominates the Republican Party and the first race confirms this reality," Julian E. Zelizer, a professor of political history at Princeton University, told AFP.
No clear alternative
The primary season has just begun.
Starting next week, the candidates take to the floor in New Hampshire. The rest of the states will vote in turn until June.
Who is the candidate best placed to compete with him? At this point, none.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley are almost neck and neck in Iowa, with around 20%. Both claim to embody the next generation of the party.
Legal troubles
Will the former real estate mogul's legal troubles prevent him from being the Republican nominee? No.
Donald Trump has been criminally indicted four times in the last year, without this affecting his popularity among his party's voters.
Quite the contrary. Trump, accused among other things of having exerted electoral pressure during the 2020 presidential election, made the most of his legal problems and turned them into a campaign issue.
He claims to be the victim of a "witch hunt" supposedly led by the Democrats.
Between rallies, elections and court cases, his year promises to be off the charts.
On Tuesday, less than 24 hours after his victory in Iowa, he is scheduled to go before a New York court in a new civil defamation lawsuit filed by expert journalist E. Jean Carroll. He was already convicted of sexual assault against her in 2023.
New Hampshire appointment
Does Donald Trump's resounding victory in Iowa mark the end of the Republican primary? Not necessarily.
"I don't know a single analyst who didn't anticipate a Trump victory in Iowa," says Larry Sabato, a professor at the University of Virginia.
In this very conservative state, where many evangelicals live, the tycoon was on friendly ground, says the political scientist, who predicts a "much more interesting election in New Hampshire".
In this state bordering Canada, which will vote on 23 January, Donald Trump's front-runner status is in doubt, with Nikki Haley, seen as a more moderate alternative, trailing just 14 points behind him, according to polls compiled by RealClearPolitics.
Biden-Trump duel?
Outgoing President Joe Biden has the official support of his party and, barring any last-minute surprises, will be nominated as the Democratic candidate in August.
And this despite criticism of the octogenarian leader's age.
Joe Biden is already anticipating a rematch of his duel with Donald Trump in 2020.
On Monday he claimed that his predecessor's victory in Iowa made him the "clear frontrunner" among Republicans.
For his re-election campaign, Joe Biden has more than 117 million dollars at his disposal, a large sum in a country where political victories are won by the chequebook.
