Divisions and abstention in the elections in Northern Cyprus

Ersin Tatar, until now the Prime Minister of the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (RTNC) won the presidential elections on Sunday, although he will have to face a second round with the current president, Mustafa Akinci.

With the vote count completed, the nationalist Tatar won with the support of 32.35 percent of the voters, followed by Akinci with 29.84 percent and the centre-left leader of the Turkish Republican Party, Tufan Erhürman, with 21.68 percent.

For a candidate to be a winner in the first round he would have had to achieve more than 50 % of the support, but since neither of them achieved it, the two candidates with the most votes will face each other again on Sunday 18.

Erhürman will not make it to the second round and is expected to support the current president as he supports the federal solution for Cyprus. The leader congratulated Tatar and Akinci and stressed the importance of the unity of the Turkish Cypriots by insisting that "we will not allow the people to be divided".

The current foreign minister, Kudret Özersay, was placed outside the podium with 5.74% and announced that due to the disappointing result he will review his political career. "However, when I see this result, my real sadness is for the future of my country. Obviously, the policies of polarisation and tension have been successful," said Özersay.

Although nothing will be decided until the second round is held, this Sunday's result is an endorsement of the nationalist ideas of Tatar, who is also leader of the National Unity Party (PUN).

These elections have been read as a key step for the possible resumption of the efforts to reunify Cyprus and as a referendum on how the Turkish Cypriots want their relationship with Turkey to develop.

Tatar is a supporter of the creation of two independent states as a solution for the Cyprus problem and enjoys great support in Ankara, where he came this week to announce by surprise together with the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the opening of part of the beach in the ghost town of Varosha.

This is an area that has been sealed off as a military zone for 46 years and is considered key to the conflict on the island, both as a trauma and as a key to the resolution of the negotiations. Varosha was the most prosperous sector of the city of Famagusta, which had 40,000 inhabitants, before it was occupied by Turkish troops in 1974. All its inhabitants were expelled. In 1984 the UN issued a resolution declaring "inadmissible" any attempt to populate any part of Varosha with people other than its original inhabitants.

Its opening, a few days before the elections, has been heavily criticized both internationally and nationally. Akinci himself said it was "a disgrace to democracy".

The current president represents the most progressive wing of the Turkish Cypriot left and his relations with Ankara are very different from those with Tatar. During his term of office he has had several clashes with Erdogan and on the same Friday he said that he and his family have been threatened by the Turkish government not to stand for re-election.

Akinci wants to put an end to the strong dependence of Turkey, which insufflates money and military force to RTNC and is the only country that recognises it as a state. Regarding the Cyprus conflict, Akinci defends a bi-zonal, bi-communal solution with political equality, with a single sovereignty, a single international legal personality and a single citizenship.

The opinions of both on this matter are of the utmost importance, as the elected president acts as the leader of the Turkish Cypriot community and has the role of negotiator in the dialogue for the reunification of Cyprus, which has remained divided into two areas since the Turkish invasion of the north of the island in 1974.

These elections have seen the lowest turnout since 2015, with only 54.72% of the approximately 200,000 people called to the polls, according to the latest turnout figures provided by the electoral committee, half an hour before the closing of the polls.

Both the election campaign and the day have been affected by the coronavirus pandemic which, in fact, delayed this appointment originally planned half a year ago.

All voters went to the schools wearing masks and had to put on gloves before they could pick up their ballots. A concern of the candidates during the campaign has been that the unprecedented virtual nature of the campaign may have kept the older population away from the ballot box.