Inocencio Arias: "Racial violence is going to mark the electoral campaign in the United States"
The United States is at a turning point. The United States' election campaign has entered the final straight after the confirmation of the current president, Donald Trump, as the Republican candidate for re-election and Joe Biden as his Democratic counterpart, with the latter leading in the polls. Racial violence and the resulting protests have added to the long list of challenges facing both leaders, a situation that could affect their aspirations of being re-elected in the presidential elections on 3 November and was analysed on Monday in the first programme of the second season of Atalayar on Capital Radio.
In the first programme of Atalayar on Capital Radio after the return from holidays, analyst José María Peredo and Inocencio "Chencho" Félix Arias Llamas, a versatile Spanish diplomat, analysed some of the events that have made the headlines this summer. "Racial violence is going to mark the election campaign because there are extremists on both sides," said Arias after stressing that "there are people who hate Trump viscerally, while another sector of the population rejects everything that Biden represents". "If I had to bet, I would bet that Trump would lose. But if I had to bet in 20 days, I might start to have doubts," he admitted. "Biden is an honest and temperate person. He does not generate enthusiasm, but neither does he generate antipathy," he said.
For his part, the analyst José María Peredo considers that we are living "a decisive moment, not only for democracy in this country, but for democracy in the world". "The moment of the electoral campaign is a moment in which American democracy is projected abroad and where many weaknesses of these institutions and candidates are seen, but it is also a moment to show all the strength of its values and all that permeates the rest of the democracies and international society," he explained.
The director of Atalayar magazine considers the current situation to be "transcendental" because the world before the arrival of Donald Trump "was totally different, especially in terms of relations between countries, multilateralism and the way conflicts were dealt with". Nonetheless, all those present at the first programme of the second season of Atalayar on Capital Radio agree that it should be borne in mind that there are millions of Americans who are clear that the best thing is for Donald Trump to come out, while there are millions more who think the opposite or are undecided.
José María Peredo Pombo -- professor of Communication and International Policy at the European University of Madrid -- also believes that racial violence will influence the upcoming elections and will be a key factor. "I believe that this week's situation is particularly tragic and violent. In other words, the outbreak of a case of police violence that I believe is already bordering on the extreme," he lamented. During his speech he explained that Trump has not been able to close the social divide that exists in his country. "This fracture has manifested itself in a very violent way in the streets, a factor that represents a deterioration not only for the campaign, but for the very democracy of our era". According to Peredo, all this means that the number of undecided states is greater than ever.
Both Inocencio Arias and Peredo agree that the three debates scheduled between Trump and Biden are going to be decisive. "I see that what Biden has used now is a very low profile campaign," criticised José María Peredo, author of the book published by Atalayar 'Esto no va de Trump'. "Biden has experience as an establishment politician. If he focuses his speech on a populist one, he doesn't have to. On the other hand, if he views the United States as a clear and up-to-date project, as if it were a foreign policy, then I believe it has an important defence", he stated.
However, Inocencio Arias considers that "in the United States it must be borne in mind that whoever is on the left of the Democratic Party or on the right of the Republican Party loses the elections". For this reason he believes that the choice of Kamala Harris as a candidate for vice-president is most appropriate. The 55-year-old senator, daughter of a Jamaican father and an Indian mother, was the attorney general of California before winning her seat in the Upper House of the US Congress in 2016. "She is sharp, biting and an honest woman. Biden has chosen a moderate woman within the party who can give her votes. She does not diminish his popularity, but adds to it," he said.
The fact that Donald Trump gave the most important campaign speech for his party at his official residence, the White House, has also been analysed in Atalayar's programme on Capital Radio. "It seems to me an intolerable abuse of power to use the institution of the US Presidency to campaign on a partisan basis. We must differentiate between state and party issues," said Javier Fernández Arribas. Spanish diplomat Inocencio Arias said this decision "is a disgrace". "Once again we must ask ourselves whether this has an electoral cost or not, and I have my doubts as to whether it does", he concluded.
