Israel moves closer to post-Netanyahu era

Israel has been a political earthquake for the past two years. The countdown to the formation of a government is coming to an end and the shadow of a fifth election seems to be drawing ever closer. After the incumbent prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, was unable to form a government, Israel's president, Reuven Rivlin, entrusted this mission to Yair Lapid, leader of the second most voted list.

On 23 March, the Israeli people voted again in the fourth election in less than two years, and the results looked bleak. No bloc won a majority of 61 seats in parliament (Knesset), and a few months of hard denials were already predicted. This Wednesday is the deadline for forming a government in Israel, and failure to reach an agreement would precipitate the call for a fifth election.

In a turn of events, Naftali Bennet, leader of the Yamina party, announced that it was his intention to form a "national unity government together with my friend Yair Lapid". This is surprising news given that during the 11-day conflict between Gaza and the Hebrew country, Bennet himself assured Netanyahu of his support for the formation of a government. But in the words of the Yamina leader, "the elections have shown that there is no [possible] right-wing government with Netanyahu. There is either unity or fifth elections". 

During a speech to the local press, Bennett firmly and repeatedly dismissed the possibility of working with the current prime minister, claiming that "nobody believes him", in a clear reference to the breakdown of the previous coalition agreement, in which Netanyahu did not cede the prime minister's post, as initially established, to Benny Gantz, of the Blue and White party, at the end of last year. He also repeatedly accused Netanyahu and his Likud party of lying and trying to scare his right-wing base during his speech. "We are up against a well-oiled machine that constantly spreads lies in order to strike fear into the hearts of the public," Bennet said.

The coalition agreement being mooted between Yamina and Yesh Atid states that Bennett would serve as prime minister until September 2023 and then hand over the reins to Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid. Lapid has reached informal coalition agreements with Yisrael Beytenu, Meretz and the Labour Party, but the formation of this new anti-Netanyahu government is still up in the air. Much depends on whether Yamina's seven MPs support a 'government of change' and whether the opposition bloc also wins the backing of the United List or the Islamist Raam.

While the agreements are being worked out, Netanyahu's party is taking advantage of the last moments to put pressure on the Yamina members to leave the party and vote against the alternative government, according to the Times of Israel. These pressures have reportedly borne fruit, with Yamina member Amichai Chikli vowing not to join a coalition with Lapid, accusing the party of having broken its main promises to the electorate. In a message on his social media Chikli wrote: "I believed in him (Bennet), in his honesty, in his love for Israel and in his Zionism, and I supported him with all my might... but this is not the way".

These last hours of negotiations will be decisive for reaching agreements between the amalgam of parties that would make up this new government, covering all kinds of ideologies, whose only common point is their animosity towards the prime minister and their desire to put an end to 12 years of a government led uninterruptedly by Netanyahu, who is also accused of three corruption cases. For now, the "bloc of change", with six of Yamina's seven seats, has 57 seats out of the 61 needed to form a government. The Arab parties are proving to be decisive for the formation of a new government.

Following Naftali Bennet's announcement that he would form a government with centrist Yair Lapid, acting prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused the Yamina leader of lying to his voters, saying that none of them would have voted for him had they known he would join Lapid, and portrayed him as a political opportunist bent on power. Speaking to the media, Netanyahu called the alliance a "left-wing government" that poses "a danger to Israel's security and a danger to the future of the state."

Israel is facing a possible new era without Netanyahu in power, and ironically it all depends on the Arab parties that have not yet officially confirmed their support for Lapid. Should the negotiations be successful, this would mark the end of 12 years of leadership by the current prime minister who has been in power since 2009, after a previous term between 1996 and 1999, and who has failed since 2019 to win the last four elections.