The Netanyahu era appears to be nearing its end

The conflict with Palestine has caught the Israeli political class divided and on the brink of new elections. The election results of 23 March did not reflect the successes of Netanyahu, whose bloc failed to win the 61 seats needed in the House to form a coalition. Until now, neither Netanyahu's bloc nor the opposition Yesh Atid guaranteed an absolute majority of 61 of the 120 members of the Israeli parliament needed to form a coalition government. 

The leader of the religious nationalist movement Yamina, Naftali Bennett, seems to have reached an agreement with the head of the centrist Yesh Atid party, Yair Lapid, which would mean the end of "Bibi" - the nickname by which the prime minister is known - who has been in power for 12 years. The pact would place Bennett as prime minister until September 2023 and Lapid until November 2025. The swearing-in ceremony is expected to take place within 10 days.

Israel's political sphere is more than convulsive, the composition of a coalition is a constant obstacle course, once the clearly "anti-Netanyahu" votes of the left, centre and right have been brought together, with a fair majority in parliament (Knesset), with 51 MPs this "bloc of change" can aspire to control the presidency of the House.

But it would need to gather another 10 seats from Arab parties (10 elected in total) or from the radical right-wing formation Yamina, led by Naftali Bennett, which, despite having only seven seats, is a key player that seems to have finally decided in favour of the opposition bloc led by Lapid and bringing together an amalgam of parties, from far-right to centre-left, opposed to the current prime minister.

Benet, with his seven seats, would tip the balance after failing to reach an agreement with Netanyahu and rejecting the proposal to head the government for the first year, by virtue of a rotation agreement. He could now support Lapid, who if given the mandate will have the difficult task of bringing together a diverse set of parties with almost opposing approaches. 

The current prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has been unable to form a majority and faces an opposition that accuses him of allowing the rapid escalation of violence and failing to properly control Hamas's military build-up in Gaza. Moreover, the Likud leader has been in government for 12 years and his public image has been tarnished by corruption scandals.

Yair Lapid, Netanyahu's main rival in the last elections and now in charge of forming a government in the face of the prime minister's inability to win the necessary seats, has accused the latter of provoking the escalation of tension in order to undermine the alliance between his party and that of Naftali Bennett.

Hours before the news broke, Prime Minister Netanyahu issued a statement on his Twitter account in which he claimed that, after having made "great concessions to reach an agreement with Bennett and Ayelet Shaked" (both from the Yamina group), they refused to sign it, "thus leaning towards a dangerous left-wing government".

Bennett, leader of the Yamina party, recently announced that he was abandoning the idea of creating a coalition government with Lapid, preferring to return to an alliance with the outgoing prime minister's Likud party. Bennet justified his position by arguing that 'given the emergency situation in the mixed cities, a government of change could not take over. You have to act with force and send in the army, so many measures that cannot be taken when you depend on Mansour Abbas", referring to the leader of the Islamist Raam party, who would be part of the coalition government.

Now, however, everything seems to have changed. Faced with this turbulent political landscape, Yair Lapid has no easy task. He must win over Naftali Bennett and the Arab parties to secure a majority in his favour in the Knesset. Israel is 80 per cent Jewish and 20 per cent Palestinian Arab. The latter will never be able to decide the political future of the state, even if they enter into confusing coalitions with Labour and the Liberals. 

If the opposition succeeds in forming a government, a page in Israel's history will be turned with the departure of Benyamin Netanyahu, who has spent the last 12 years in power. If not, Israelis risk returning to the polls for the fifth time in just over two years. All in all, Israel's political landscape is uncertain and looks set to remain uncertain.