Israeli coalition loses parliamentary majority

Israel's government has lost its parliamentary majority after a female MP withdrew from the coalition between centrist Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid and right-wing Yamina leader Naftali Bennett.

Lapid, who governed with a narrow majority of 61 seats in the Knesset (Israel's parliament) out of 120, is now facing an unprecedented political crisis that could lead to new elections.

The resignation of Idit Silman, a member of the ultra-nationalist Yamina party, has taken all MPs by surprise. Following her departure, Silman announced that she was withdrawing her support for the political coalition and said she would work towards the formation of what could be a new government.

However, Silman's departure does not necessarily mean the fall of the political bloc. In this respect, her resignation opens the door to three scenarios. The first would be the formation of an alternative to the current government through the members of the Joint List, which includes three Arab parties and six Knesset members.

The second could mobilise the Yamina MPs to Netanyahu's bench, more specifically to the Likud party, which would open up the possibility of the former prime minister forming a new government, should he win the support of at least 61 MPs.

A third scenario is that Israel will once again head for early elections, a scenario that could occur as defections from Likud's right-wing parties continue, all of which are designed to prevent Netanyahu's return to power.

With the withdrawal of the right-wing MP, the political map of the Knesset has again become blurred. There are now 60 MPs who support the current government, compared to 54 members who oppose it, which has unbalanced the balance of the political weighting that the parliament enjoyed, only by a very slight simple majority. 

This development weakens Bennett and his government partners in a context of internal and regional tension. In this regard, the country has suffered three terrorist attacks in less than a week, before the start of Ramadan. The first two, which killed six people, were perpetrated by Daesh, while the third was carried out by a West Banker who, after opening fire on passers-by in the town of Bnei Brak, killed another five people.

On the other hand, former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, now leader of the opposition, has congratulated the MP after considering her move as a "brave" move and encouraged the other MPs of the Yamina party to join his bloc, a political formation in which he assures that they will be "received with total respect and open arms". In this sense, several media reports suggest that Silman will form part of the bloc led by Netanyahu, something that favours him in terms of destabilising the current coalition government. 

The current political coalition came to power last June, thus dethroning Netanyahu's 12 consecutive years as prime minister and emerging from a political stalemate that had been paralysed since 2019.

Thus, the so-called "Government of Change" began a political phase that has not been without obstacles. The coalition, which is made up of a host of political formations, including, for the first time in Israel's history, an Arab country, has overcome a series of challenges that now seem to have managed to deal a major blow to the political formation.

In this respect, Netanyahu has not been the only opposition to the bloc. For the former prime minister, the new political formation was a "weak government" and he went so far as to call it a "fraud", but these statements were not the harshest he received from the bench. In this regard, the ultra-Orthodox parties and Likud members called the new coalition a "disgrace" and called Lapid a "liar", thus bogging down a political panorama that already augured problems in national politics. 

In these almost ten months of government, Lapid's government has also experienced a frenetic diplomatic race, a direct consequence of the Abraham Accords. In this regard, the new government has sought to strengthen cooperation and diplomatic relations with several Arab countries in order to continue to forge common ties and strengthen regional security. This is the case of countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Morocco and Bahrain, which have shown great willingness to continue cooperating with Israel in different sectors, from tourism to arms.

This political crisis also comes at a time of European instability. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has put Israel in an important position. In this regard, Israel maintained diplomatic agreements with Moscow in order to safeguard its interests. So much so that Bennett had the first meeting with Putin after he launched the invasion. Thus, Israel would try to mediate between Ukraine and Russia in order to avoid making a big deal of it and thus not angering its strategic partner.

On the other hand, the United States' more than remarkable relations with Tel Aviv show that Israel is on a kind of tightrope that could be broken if Washington decides to harden its position towards Moscow even more, which could put pressure on Tel Aviv to cool its relations with the Russians.  

Moreover, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains entrenched. Tensions between Jews and Muslims have continued to simmer, as seen in several confrontations between Israeli and Palestinian security officials in recent months. Moreover, these clashes coincide with the passing of one of the most recent laws adopted by the Knesset, which decrees the denial of naturalisation to Palestinians from the West Bank or Gaza who are married to Israeli citizens. This law ensures that the Jewish character of the state is upheld. The law also prohibits the union of Israeli citizens with citizens of 'enemy countries' such as Lebanon, Syria and Iran.

In addition, coinciding with the holy month of Ramadan, the executive has ordered the deployment of 8,000 additional security agents at security checkpoints in Jerusalem, such as the Damascus Gate, the entrance to Muslim holy sites. This deployment has provoked further protests and confrontations by Palestinians living in the holy city, clouding a scenario that is expected to enter a new phase of political stalemate.