New fighting in Tripoli as Haftar air offensive approaches

The priority is to maintain dominance over the capital. This seems to be the motto being followed by the military strategists of the Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA). Just hours after the spokesman for the rebel Libyan National Army (LNA) announced "the largest air offensive in Libya's history", fighting between the two sides has escalated dramatically in the suburbs of the country's main city.

Over the past few hours, the two sides have been fighting around small population centres on the southern outskirts of the capital. For the time being, the outcome of the fighting between the LNA and GNA has been more favourable to the latter. The fighters of Prime Minister Fayez Sarraj, mostly belonging to jihadist terrorist organizations in Syria, have launched a ground attack on the LNA's positions in Khalifa Haftar on the front line.

For a few weeks now, the area where the clashes between the two sides had been taking place had remained fairly stable, with no significant progress on either side. As documented by the local newspaper The Libya Observer, the GNA combat units have successfully attempted to move their opponents' positions a little further south. 

Thus, the fighters of Sarraj, who have logistical and armament support from Turkey, have consolidated their dominance over the towns of Salah al-Din and Ain Zara, located about twelve kilometres from the centre of Tripoli, in the vicinity of the outer ring road, and considered on a strategic level as the gateway to the capital from the south. Similarly, heavy fire has been reported in the vicinity of Tripoli International Airport, located even further south, as documented by various local media. 

In practice, what does this movement entail? Generally speaking, the members of the ANG have managed to gain some air, although the LNA troops still have the cities of Qasr bin Ghashir and Tarhuna under their control, two urban centres of some importance that may serve as bases for launching future operations on the capital. Similarly, the airport remains under Haftar's control, although the strengthening of the NAG's positions in the surrounding areas poses a growing threat to the position.

The big question on the horizon is whether these small territorial gains will help Sarraj to deal more confidently with the imminent air offensive announced by the LNA. All indications are that the clashes will take on a new dimension in the next few hours.

According to reports from Bloomberg News, Marshal Haftar has strengthened his air power with the arrival of eight Russian-made aircraft. These are six MIG-29 fighters and two of the Sukhoi-24 model. Although the Kremlin - one of the LNA's most prominent allies in terms of the provision of war equipment - has not officially confirmed these reports, satellite images show at least one MIG-29 fighter stationed at Al-Jufra airbase, located in the interior of the country, some 300 kilometres south of the city of Sirte.

Bloomberg points out that Russian air reinforcements for the LNA would have come via Syria, from Khmeimim airbase, located near the city of Tartus. From their new location in the Libyan desert, these fighters pose a new threat over Tripoli. However, the Sarraj side says it is prepared to reject the new LNA bombing campaign. Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government has warned that its warships, missile batteries and drones are ready to respond to any attack.

Indeed, the Turkish unmanned aerial vehicles of the Bayraktar TB-2 model have, in recent months, been a very important piece of the GNA’s military successes, both on the defensive and on the offensive sides. Thanks to them, the fighters of the Tripoli administration have been able to conquer the coastline stretching from Tripoli to the Tunisian border, as well as the strategic airbase of Al-Wattiya. This is expected to be another front where fighting will take place in the coming days.

For the time being, both sides have already issued numerous warnings to the civilian population to stay away, as far as possible, from the hottest areas. The LNA has warned that it will consider any Turkish position as a valid target, while the GNA has called on non-combatants to move away from Haftar's troops.