The paradigm shift in Ukraine: the summit between Xi Jinping and Putin

In the latest edition of "De cara al mundo" on Onda Madrid, we had the participation of José María Peredo, Professor of Communication and International Relations at the Universidad Europea and author of the book "Esto no va de Trump", who analysed the first anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the announcement of Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow in the new position of China in the world order. 

What is your assessment of Joe Biden's surprise visit to Kiev? It is a demonstration of strong and resolute US support for Ukraine. 

Yes, but also very symbolic. I think this visit has a very important effect on international public opinion, first of all, and also on the morale of the Ukrainian government and Ukrainian society itself. I think there has been a very clear, very firm and very united response that Biden has led within NATO, which has been reproduced in the European Union and which shows that the United States is at the forefront in having maintained this support for Ukraine so that it can defend itself against the Russian invasion.  

I think the symbolic effect is important, the political action is important. We will see how it evolves in the coming weeks, which is an extremely important moment in the conflict. 

Are Putin's feet being stopped? China is also appearing on the scene every day. We have seen the Chinese Foreign Minister not only in Munich but also in Moscow preparing for Xi Jinping's visit to the Russian capital. 

Of course, I think this is another key issue. So far China has maintained a position of distance on sanctions, of not joining international issues and not condemning the invasion, but it has supported a negotiation process, of course, and an end to the violence. 

Of course, it is also worth noting that China's non-commitment to a stronger condemnation has also, in a way, facilitated Russia's own strategy and policy. There will be a shift in this direction at the summit between the two leaders. 

The effect the war is having is a global effect in both economic and political terms, and a step forward by China in trying to reduce aggressiveness would change the scenario, despite the strategic shift that Russia seems to be making, preparing for one of great dimensions. Undoubtedly, Chinese diplomatic action in this sense, not just mediation but simply establishing a framework for such negotiations to take place, would be important. That would be desirable, but so far this has not been achieved. 

NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg spoke the other day in Munich about "global security". He said it was not just about European security because there was a risk of another war in Asia. Do you think China would take that step? 

I would say no, but there is certainly a risk. At the moment, there are some claims by China, specifically about Taiwan, but broadly about not taking on the parameters of the international order. This makes it a power, a revisionist power, and therefore this risk exists, but at the moment it has not become a threat. 

Now, we must undoubtedly understand that the war in Ukraine does have a global effect, it is not only an economic effect, but also a political and strategic effect. If no progress is made, it opens the way for declarations by other powers to take that step forward with an aggressive policy, military or otherwise. Therefore, I believe that the diplomatic moment is very important, from the unity that Europe and NATO have of course maintained, to also try to find a group of powers that would be capable of building that negotiating environment that we all hope for but that is certainly not yet in sight at the moment.