Peace talks begin in South Africa between the Ethiopian government and TPLF
Pretoria holds the key to peace in Ethiopia. South Africa's administrative capital has kicked off the first peace talks between the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) under the auspices of the African Union.
Vincent Magwenya, the spokesman for South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, announced the start of the talks, which he said could be concluded by Sunday 30 October. "We hope that the talks will progress constructively and have a successful outcome that will lead to peace for all the people of our dear brother country", Magwenya announced.
AU launches peace talks to end the conflict in the Tigray Region of Ethiopia : https://t.co/UJ6lhiUzH0 pic.twitter.com/4gfzXl2Qxa
— African Union (@_AfricanUnion) October 25, 2022
In any case, everything depends on the arrangements between the two sides. According to the Daily Maverick portal, the Ethiopian delegation is led by Redwan Husein, national security advisor to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, and Justice Minister Gedio Timotheos. The Tigrayan rebels are represented by TPLF spokesman Getachew Reda and Army General Tsadkan Grebetansae.
Kindeya Gebrehiwot, TPLF member in charge of foreign affairs, has called for "an immediate cessation of hostilities, unrestricted humanitarian access to Tigray and the withdrawal of Eritrean forces" in addition to the Ethiopian army. "There can be no military solution!", Kindeya said on his Twitter account. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed also assured that the conflict "will end and peace will prevail".
The delegation of the Govt of Tigray to attend the AU-led peace talks on #Ethiopia #Tigray have just arrived at South Africa. Pressing: immediate cessation of hostilities, unfettered humanitarian access & withdrawal of Eritrean forces. There can't be a military solution!
— Kindeya Gebrehiwot, PhD, Prof (@ProfKindeya) October 23, 2022
The talks are being organised by the AU's Horn of Africa envoy and former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo, former Kenyan president Uhuru Kenyatta - who has already organised a meeting in Nairobi that the two warring delegations missed - and former South African vice-president Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka.
However, negotiations will be difficult. According to Mario Lozano Alonso, a historian specialising in Ethiopia, who spoke to Atalayar, "the option of the conflict turning into a guerrilla war is on the table, because although the TPLF is isolated, it is still a fearsome force in the mountainous areas".
"The option for the TPLF to integrate into the Prosperity Party is off the table today. And I see Tigray's independence as remote, as it would be isolated and surrounded by two potentially hostile states. Time is on Addis Ababa's side, as it has access to the arms market and has discreet support from China and other powers", adds Lozano Alonso.
The meeting in Pretoria is the most important step towards peace in Ethiopia and is already beginning to receive the support of the entire international community, which is calling for a cessation of hostilities as a first step towards the long-awaited peace. The European Union's High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell, added his voice to this support: "We count on the political leadership and sense of responsibility of all parties to work together to turn commitments into action, to end human suffering and put Ethiopia on the path to reconciliation and reconstruction", he said on Twitter.
And in Pretoria the goal is clear: to end a conflict that has claimed more than half a million lives and put the lives of 20 million people at risk for lack of food.
However, much of this support for peace talks has not been entirely welcomed by Ethiopians. Ethiopia's Joint Council of Political Parties urged the UN and the European Union to correct their position on sanctions against Addis Ababa in order to support the Ethiopian people on their path to peace. "It is unacceptable to interfere in the internal affairs of a sovereign country", the statement was quoted as saying by the ENA news agency.
A call that materialised in the 22 October demonstrations, supported by the government, calling for national unity and an end to the coordinated efforts of external actors, especially the United States. "Respect our sovereignty", "TPLF is a mercenary group", "end the proxy war in Ethiopia", "the people of Tigray are our compatriots; the junta is our enemy" are some of the slogans that were heard in these national mobilisations, according to the Ethiopian news portal Borkena.
According to this Ethiopian position, Washington could be supporting the TPLF, which they define as a "mercenary force loyal to its Western masters". This distrust was expressed by demonstrators burning American flags and waving Russian flags. The Kremlin's support for the TPLF is already a spectre that haunts Africa, with its strongest support in Isaias Afewerki's Eritrea, the neighbouring country of former Abyssinia.
