Possible US military intervention in Venezuela
The resolution signed by the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, has just come into force, following its publication in the Federal Register. The inclusion of the aforementioned cartel on the FTO list allows the US authorities to take action ranging from legal proceedings to military operations, including the blocking of material support and international cooperation.
Eliécer Elbittar, legal advisor to the CARIVE organisation in the US (Active Coalition of the Venezuelan International Reserve), in an interview with this correspondent, has just stated that, once the Cartel of the Suns has been designated a terrorist organisation, a possible US military intervention is being considered to remove President Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela's Minister of Interior Relations, Justice and Peace, Diosdado Cabello, and Vladimir Padrino López, Venezuela's Minister of Popular Power for Defence. ‘It is therefore expected to happen imminently,’ Elbittar said a few hours ago.
After eight years of organisational work, CARIVE is an organisation that has emerged from exile, created by former high-ranking officers of the Bolivarian Armed Forces, with a view to resolving the Venezuelan crisis.
Both Eliécer Elbittar and his boss in Orlando, National Guard captain and political prisoner in exile Juan Carlos Nieto Quintero, when asked in Miami about a ‘direct extraction’ of leaders or alleged military actions, assured that there is a high probability of these occurring in the coming days, while emphasising the existence of a state policy (Cuban intelligence) that atomises and monitors, making it difficult to incorporate ‘elements’ into these efforts, so that the intervention will be gradual and limited, aimed at transformation, without ruling out possible bloodshed in the Caribbean country.
Social complexity of support
That being the case, National Guard Captain Juan Carlos Nieto Quintero asserts that the success of the operation would involve a popular mobilisation without repression by the security forces, without ignoring the existence of militias and groups such as the FARC and the ELN, which have been present in Venezuela for years in collusion with Nicolás Maduro. ‘The coexistence of these actors with militias from popular sectors means that many participants act out of necessity, even for food bags,’ Nieto Quintero points out.
To explain the possible military intervention by the United States, with total operational discretion, Captain Juan Carlos Nieto mentions ‘four phases’ (including the use of ships), linked to instructions from the Donald Trump administration. He therefore points to a ‘phase 2,’ initiated with the aircraft carrier Gerald Ford in Madeira, together with the guidelines of the Southern Command in the Atlantic; a ‘third phase’ with information reserved for the president and senior officials (undersecretaries), specifying military objectives; and a ‘phase 4’ of extraction of figures such as Nicolás Maduro, Diosdado Cabello, and Vladimir Padrino López: ‘Only a small circle handles details of timing and targets; once the powers have been defined as military targets, the extractions would be carried out. We may already be in this final phase. It is a phased and confidential design.’
According to Eliécer Elbittar, legal advisor to the CARIVE organisation in the USA, international support as an ally will not be easy due to the presence of Russians, Iranians, Cubans and Nicaraguans with spheres of influence in the country, which intensifies the complexity of any internal or external action. ‘Venezuela, an enormously rich country, is key in Latin America, and its fall would cause that of Cuba, Colombia, and Nicaragua due to the domino effect of the regional left,’ he says.
According to Eliécer Elbittar, the Trump administration's approach is aimed at identifying the state of Zulia, on the western border, as a key target due to its status as a border par excellence, suggesting strategic nodes worthy of note for imminent actions or territorial control.
By Carmen Chamorro, director of CIP/ACPE and graduate in International Relations and Global Terrorism from SEI.