Putin raises tensions with recognition of Lugansk and Donetsk Republics

Russian President Vladimir Putin recognised the independence of the Lugansk and Donetsk People's Republics on Monday, in what could be the prelude to Russia's military intervention in Ukraine. The gradual escalation of tensions, which began in November with the concentration of a contingent of 100,000 troops on the border, reached its climax hours after the Kremlin gave its approval for a summit with US President Joe Biden.

"I recognise the independence of the Lugansk and Donetsk republics," Putin said in an almost hour-long address to the nation. The Russian president had put his signature hours earlier on the documents decreeing this recognition, which had already been noted by French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who hastened to denounce the gesture.

Putin made the decision during a meeting with the Security Council, the regime's top brass. Broadcast in fake live, the meeting was attended by members of the Russian Federation's top leadership and top state security officials, from the head of the intelligence services to Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu. All of them defended the recognition of the separatist republics almost unreservedly.

"Russia has every right to maintain its security in the Donbass," the Russian leader said in a speech announced by the Kremlin late on Monday. During his historically revisionist speech, Putin attacked Lenin and the Communist Party politburo for the mistakes that led to the independence of the Soviet Socialist Republics, with the focus on Ukraine.

"It is not clear whether it will recognise the republics on their current borders at the line of contact or whether it will recognise them on their provincial borders, which cover more territory," notes analyst Manuel Fernández Illera. "It seems that the recognition will be of the entire province, as Lugansk and Donetsk will recognise these territories as their own. This would give Moscow a 'casus beli'. Both territories have been disputed since 2014, and the war has been simmering ever since.

Recognition would imply the violation of the Minsk agreements, pacts that triggered an unsuccessful ceasefire and whose basic premises have not been fulfilled by Kiev. The recent spike in attacks in the Donbass in recent days has hardened the Kremlin's rhetoric, which has seen the authorities in Lugansk and Donetsk launch evacuations of women and children to the Russian city of Rostov.

This is "a tool of the Kremlin to secure a position of power, or at least a sign of it, in the current tension", says analyst Marcos Bosschart. "Russia has been dragged into a perception of an invader state by US accusations. Tension in the border areas has been the consequence of a continuous escalation as a result of no one being willing to back down on their red lines".

In his speech, Putin has deployed an extensive list of arguments and false premises to justify the intervention. A framework that has led him to argue that Kiev "is trying to organise a blitzkrieg over the Donbass as they did in 2014 and 2015", so he will have to set himself up as the protector of these two republics, whose inhabitants have Russian identity cards and are recognised as citizens.

Putin also claimed that the Ukrainian army is committing "genocide" against the Russian population and accused the British and US secret services, MI6 and the CIA of "secretly recruiting fighters with war experience, including jihadist militiamen, to send them to the Donbass. And he ended by denouncing an alleged coup d'état in Ukraine in 2014, when the Euromaidan revolution ousted pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovic from power and favoured the arrival of Petro Poroshenko, with a pro-Western profile and agenda.

The Russian leader also had words for NATO, whose partners "have not changed their stance" on his claims. Putin assured that the members of the Atlantic Alliance "threaten sanctions regardless of the situation in Ukraine, in order to curb Russia's development". He recalled a conversation with former US President Bill Clinton, who reacted coldly when Putin asked him about Russia's possible NATO membership. At the same time, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg joined in condemning the Kremlin's action.

The European Union has spoken out against the recognition, which represents a "flagrant violation of international law, the territorial integrity of Ukraine and the Minsk agreements". The document, signed by European Council President Charles Michel, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU High Representative for Foreign Policy Josep Borrell, pledges firm action.

Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelenski has held an urgent conversation with US President Joe Biden to discuss Putin's speech. Hours earlier, the Ukrainian leader had urgently convened the UN Security Council at a time when the international community is seeking certainty and coordinating against the clock to respond to Russia's recognition of the Lugansk and Donetsk republics. For the time being, the White House has announced that it will ban all trade relations with the Donbass territories.