Russia attacks Idlib intensively after ceasefire with Turkey

Syria is not resting and every day the strategic map of the war becomes more complicated. This Sunday Russian planes attacked the northwest of the country, specifically the Idlib region, in what, according to eyewitness sources, were "the most important attacks since the Turkish-Russian agreement stopped fighting in March", reports Reuters.

Witnesses said warplanes attacked the western outskirts of Idlib and there was heavy artillery bombing in the mountainous region of Jabal al-Zawya, south of the city. It is not yet reported how many casualties they have caused.

"These incursions are by far the most intense attacks so far since the ceasefire agreement," said Mohammed Rasheed, a former rebel officer and volunteer observer of aircraft whose network covers the Russian air base in the western coastal province of Latakia.

Other tracking centres have stated that Russian Sukhoi planes attacked the Horsh area and the town of Arab Said, west of the city of Idlib. The drones have also reached two rebel-controlled towns on the Sahel al-Ghab plain west of Hama province.

Turkey has been taking advantage of the chaos of the Syrian civil war since 2012. And Russia has been intervening militarily in the country since 2015. Syria has supported the regime of Bashar al-Asad since the beginning of the Arab Spring revolts. And Turkey, taking advantage of the fact that it is a bordering country, has carried out an ambiguous policy against Kurds, Syrians and Russians, earning the enmity of the Syrian civilians who suffer from the war every day.
 

Since the non-aggression agreement made by Turkey and Russia in March 2020, no large-scale air raids had taken place. In fact, there were those who ended the Russian bombing campaign that has already displaced more than one million people in the border region with Turkey.  

But throughout the month of September, northern Syria has witnessed several paradigm shifts. Turkey is still interested in fighting against the Kurds, who continue to attack the Ottoman army without any rest. Moreover, Erdogan sent an ultimatum to Al-Asad in February to withdraw its troops from the border guard posts north of Idlib. 

During these days, numerous civil protests in Idlib have called for the Turks to withdraw towards their border. Last Wednesday, in the last round of talks, Moscow put pressure on Ankara to reduce its military presence in Idlib, but it has ignored this. Turkey has more than 10,000 troops stationed in a dozen of bases along the outskirts of the city.

The Turks continue to act in Syria as if it were their own territory and this weekend, after previous warnings, Russia has again attacked Idlib taking advantage also of the fact that the city of Idlib is still controlled by anti-government rebel forces.

There have still been no declarations from Moscow or the Syrian army, which for some months have been accusing the rebel militant groups that dominate Idlib of "breaking the ceasefire agreement and attacking areas controlled by the Syrian army".

This agreement included the following premises: there would be a ceasefire in the northwest area near Idlib; all parties would maintain some kind of presence in the area, pending a final agreement; the rebels would lay down their weapons; Turkey would begin to set up a dozen observation posts run by its own troops; and a negotiated future would be sought.

The talks that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin held at the time defused a military confrontation between them after Ankara sent thousands of armed troops to the province of Idlib to prevent the Russian-backed forces from making further progress.

But unfortunately, it appears that the points of the agreement are not being fulfilled and Russia has decided to continue to defend Al-Asad's regime irrespective of whether Turkey is close by.

There are currently over three million people living in Idlib, the last rebel stronghold since the war began in 2011. Many of these people live in refugee camps in extreme conditions. Some of them, opponents of the Al-Asad regime, say they would rather live like this than under the Syrian regime, but the situation is unsustainable and health and hygiene standards are at rock bottom.

On the other hand, in the provinces of Damascus, Rif Damascus, Latakia and Hama, the Syrian government is looking for alternatives to tackle the wheat crisis it is experiencing after reducing the daily bread ration to families in the areas controlled by the regime.

The UN Special Envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, said last week that the talks of the Constitutional Committee for Syria held in August were "substantive" and provide a "weak but real glimmer of hope" for a solution to the conflict in the country.
 

This is what he told the United Nations Security Council, where he specified that: in this third round of discussions in Geneva, the parties convened - government, opposition and civil society - agreed on an outline for the development of the agenda on the country and that "common ground" is emerging on some issues.

However, Pedersen regretted that there is still a deep mistrust between all parties involved in the Syrian conflict. There are still "very real" differences, even at a general level, and he pointed out that the parties did not reach agreement on the agenda for the next session. "We need to finalise the agenda without further delay if we are to meet in early October as we had hoped," he urged.

The Constitutional Committee for Syria has a mandate to prepare and draft a constitutional reform in the country. The Committee can review and amend the 2012 Constitution or, instead, draft a new one. The draft must incorporate the 12 principles that emerged from the Geneva process and were approved in negotiations held in the Russian city of Sochi.

"If we can finalise an agenda and move forward in this way, I am hopeful that we can deepen this process with a fourth session soon," Pedersen added.

All peace processes are welcome, although some wonder whether the opposing actors will ever be willing to sign the peace and talk bilaterally. The war in Syria has become an international war in which many actors have left their mark. Furthermore, the threat of the Islamic state and Jabhat al-Nusra (the break-up of al-Qaeda in Syria) continue to be present within the country. 

Bashar al-Asad's army, together with his ally Putin, has a lot of work to do while Turkey continues to smear everything with its cross interests.