Russia regroups forces in eastern Ukraine
Day 36 of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Five weeks on, the conflict has entered a new phase as a result of dialogue between Kiev and Moscow in Istanbul. Hosted by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the talks invited optimism, but set off alarm bells in the West about the Kremlin's hidden agenda. This scepticism was justified given Russia's track record of violating pacts.
The Russian and Ukrainian delegations on Tuesday outlined a minimal agreement to get the ceasefire back on track. The Russian Defence Ministry announced a "reduction of military operations" in Chernobyl and Kiev, and Ukraine definitively renounced NATO membership in exchange for defence guarantees. The ground seemed ripe for détente and a summit between Vladimir Putin and Volodymir Zelensky was even discussed, but Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov deflated expectations.
"Before a meeting between presidents could take place, it would be necessary to finalise a draft peace agreement that would be approved by senior officials of both sides. Only after that can there be talk of a meeting at the highest level," Peskov said. What seems closer is a second meeting between foreign ministers Dimitro Kuleba and Sergey Lavrov, according to the head of Turkish diplomacy, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu.
Western leaders were wary of Moscow's pledges. "According to our intelligence, Russian units are not withdrawing but repositioning," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told a press briefing. The Norwegian listed a number of arguments that would dismantle the Kremlin's version, which he said was withdrawing its troops. "Russia is trying to regroup, resupply and reinforce its offensive in the Donbass region," where it is concentrating all its forces.
"Russia has repeatedly lied about its intentions. So we can only judge Russia by its actions, not its words," Stoltenberg said, underscoring the mistrust of Atlantic Alliance partners in Moscow's commitments. Ukrainian forces have repelled constant Russian offensives on the northern front, regaining territory, and logistical shortages have derailed the operation. The Russian army is now building up forces in the Lugansk and Donetsk oblasts, regions it intends to 'liberate'.
The port city of Mariupol, reduced to rubble by the effects of Russian artillery, was the subject of a new ceasefire on Thursday, which will come into effect on Friday from 10 a.m. local time for the reopening of a humanitarian corridor, according to the International Red Cross. Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk announced the departure of 45 buses to the town of 145,000 people to evacuate civilians who have not been able to flee, still trapped in an enclave crucial to the Kremlin's plans.
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday approved 134,500 new army recruits by decree as part of the annual spring draft, according to Reuters. Although the Defence Ministry later clarified that the draft is not associated with the invasion of Ukraine, the version, offered earlier this month, was not fulfilled, as the authorities acknowledged having sent new troops to the former Soviet republic against Putin's instructions.
The Russian president thought that the Ukrainians would welcome Russian forces, that they would depose Zelensky's government with relative ease and that he would deal the final blow to NATO. Not only did he fail to achieve his goals, but he provoked a diametrically opposed reaction. It has strengthened the unity of the Ukrainian people, made Zelensky a statesman and united the Atlantic Alliance partners. Has Vladimir Putin failed or is the Russian autocrat's plans elsewhere?
New York Times columnist Bret Stephens suggested that Putin may never have intended to conquer all of Ukraine, but rather that his plans were to seize Europe's second-largest natural gas reserves in the eastern part of the country. This thesis would focus on securing the continent's energy hegemony for itself. But US intelligence has suggested that the Russian president has been misinformed by his praetorian guard, fearful of a backlash.
"It turns out that neither the State Department nor the Pentagon has real information about what is going on in the Kremlin," Peskov replied. "They don't understand President Putin, they don't understand the decision-making mechanism and they don't understand the efforts of our work." The denial has also been overshadowed by the account of the head of the British spy agency GCHQ, Sir Jeremy Fleming, who has revealed his advisers' "fear of telling him the truth".
The Russian president held a new telephone conversation with Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi on Thursday. The former president of the European Central Bank described a ceasefire in Ukraine as "premature" and said that it was necessary to continue negotiations. According to Adnkronos, Draghi discussed with Putin the supply of gas to Europe now that the Russian president has signed the decree that will force "hostile" countries to pay for energy in roubles as of Friday.