Syria expels Iranian leader from Quds Forces

Syria has expelled the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's Quds Force, Jawad Ghafari. This was acknowledged by the Iranian Foreign Ministry after confirming the authenticity of reports that he had been expelled.

This exclusion has been executed by the Al-Asad regime. The reasons are not yet clear, but everything points to Iran's confrontation with Israel, as Syria accuses Ghafari of almost provoking "an unwanted regional war" with the Israelis. According to the report, the Iranian commander allegedly acted "against instructions" and led "a series of activities against the US and Israel that nearly brought Syria to its knees, including the attack on US targets in Syria on 20 October" through pro-Iranian militias.

The reports also accuse Ghafari of carrying out "a violation against Syria's sovereignty" and of being involved in smuggling various Syrian goods and establishing an arms market. In addition, Iranian forces are said to have exploited various natural and economic resources in the country without paying taxes to the Syrian government.

Also known as Brigadier General Ahmed Madani, Jawad Ghafari played a prominent role in the Iran-Iraq war under the leadership of Qassem Soleimani, the former commander of Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces in northern Syria, who was killed by US forces.

According to some sources, Ghafari is alleged to have been involved in a number of killings during the battle for the liberation of Aleppo, as well as crimes committed during the siege of Eastern Guta, an enclave where there has been heavy bombardment of civilians and where investigations continue into alleged chemical attacks using sarin.

Protests against the Al-Assad regime in 2011 led to a popular and rebel uprising that sought to end the long-ruling Al-Assad regime. Far from being overthrown, Syria became a chess game of political and economic interests in which the US and Russia waged a kind of cold war in which civilians became pawns to their fate.

Terrorist groups such as Daesh managed to strengthen themselves and tried to establish an attempted Caliphate, while other countries in the region, such as Iran and Israel, did not hesitate to support the main powers, the former Russia and the latter the United States, in order to expand their influence.

From Tehran, the ties that unite the former Persian country with the "pearl of the east" are religious ties, as both states are followers of the Shi'a branch of Islam, the side that defends that Muslim leaders should be direct descendants of the Prophet Mohammed. 

In order to preserve Shi'ism in the area, a minority branch in the face of a large Sunni majority, Iran provided financial assistance to Damascus in "lines of credit of between $10 billion and $15 billion", as well as oil supplies and technical assistance for energy supplies.

However, different analysts have pointed out that Iran's strategy in Syria was not solely motivated by religious sentiment, but that geopolitical interests predominated. Their motivations could include the Israeli presence in the area, as the Iranian revolution has stated that "Iran's first objective is to fight against Israel".  In this context, not only does the Islamic Republic not recognise Israel, but it also considers it to be a major threat to its national and regional security.

The US presence in Syria thus brought about Israeli intervention in the war. While Tel Aviv's official position was neutrality, its position remained firm in opposing Tehran's involvement in the conflict. In this context, the Israeli defence minister pointed out that 'keeping Assad in power would lead to an increased presence of Iran and Hezbollah in Syria'. 

Israel's military role would thus have been limited to a series of missile strikes, an offensive that had not been officially recognised until 2017. In fact, it was in this same year that a ceasefire was announced in southwest Syria by the US and Russia, an agreement that Israel opposed because it did not see its security interests reflected as it "contradicted all the positions that Israel had presented to the Americans and the Russians".

Israel continued to warn of the danger posed by Iran's presence in the area while Hezbollah forces saw an opportunity in the conflict to strengthen their presence. After providing support to the Shia minority, the Lebanese branch served Iran's interests by defending the Syria-Iran axis.

Al-Assad's victory in the civil conflict led to the strengthening of pro-Iranian gangs in the area. This has been followed by the presence of strong Iranian militias in countries such as Iraq, where it is feared that, following a future US exit, the Iranian presence will be strengthened. This is of concern to countries such as Saudi Arabia, where the historic rivalry with Iran has come to be described as the Middle East's new Cold War.