Trump's government shutdown: strategy or disaster foretold?
- A shutdown looms, but remains unconfirmed
- A manufactured crisis according to the opposition
- Polymarket anticipates scenarios of duration
- Weapon of pressure or historic mistake?
A shutdown looms, but remains unconfirmed
The United States is on the brink of another Trump administration shutdown. Prediction markets such as Polymarket give it an 80% to 90% chance of happening tomorrow, reflecting the level of tension in Washington.
Although not yet confirmed, the possibility of the federal administration being paralysed has sparked a national debate: will it be a failure that will affect millions of citizens or a deliberate strategy by the former president to impose his agenda?
Trump turns the threat into a political weapon
Unlike other presidents, Trump has not tried to hide the risk of a shutdown. On the contrary, he has presented it as a tool to ‘regain power from the deep state.’ In one of his latest speeches, he asserted that ‘the days of government by unelected bureaucrats are over’ and that officials who resist his plan will be removed.
The White House goes even further. According to several US media outlets, Trump's advisers see the shutdown as a historic opportunity to cut social programmes, lay off federal employees and reshape the state apparatus. There is already talk of permanent layoffs, not just temporary salary suspensions, which would set an unprecedented precedent in the modern history of federal shutdowns.
A manufactured crisis according to the opposition
Democrats have not hesitated to describe this situation as a ‘manufactured crisis.’ Hakeem Jeffries, minority leader in the House, denounced that Republicans are seeking to lead ‘the country into an unnecessary collapse.’ Chuck Schumer, Senate leader, reinforced this idea by asserting that conservatives rejected proposals to keep the government open in the short term.
Even House Speaker Mike Johnson, an ally of Trump, admitted that ‘the pain will fall on states governed by Democrats.’ His words show the extent to which the shutdown has become a partisan weapon, designed to punish adversarial territories.
A high economic and social cost
Beyond the political game, the Trump government shutdown would have a huge economic and social cost. Analysts estimate losses of $15 billion per week in US GDP. Some 750,000 federal employees could be left without pay, while national parks, administrative offices and civilian programmes would be suspended.
The impact goes beyond people's pockets. The rating agency Scope warned that a prolonged shutdown would damage the United States' creditworthiness and make its debt more expensive. In a global context already marked by economic uncertainty, this signal could hit international financial markets hard.
The memory of the 2018-2019 shutdown
The spectre of 2018-2019 remains present. At that time, the shutdown lasted 35 days, the longest in the country's history. Economic losses exceeded $11 billion, and thousands of families suffered delays in payments and essential services.
The lesson from that episode is clear: although shutdowns often begin as a political pressure tactic, they soon become a boomerang that hits everyone involved. However, Trump seems convinced that this time the outcome could work in his favour.
Polymarket anticipates scenarios of duration
Prediction markets offer clues as to what might happen. According to Polymarket, the most popular option is that the shutdown will last between 10 and 29 days, with a probability of around 44%. 26% are betting on a shorter shutdown, lasting between 4 and 9 days. And there are those who venture that it could last more than a month, which would mean a scenario of maximum political tension.
These figures reflect that, although the shutdown is not certain, the dominant perception is that it will happen and that it will not be brief.
Between failure and covert triumph
The central debate revolves around how this episode will be remembered. For critics, the Trump administration's shutdown is a resounding failure that will hit workers, families and businesses. The disruption of public services, the damage to the economy and the loss of institutional confidence are strong arguments for this view.
But other analysts interpret it as a covert triumph. By causing chaos, Trump could force Democrats to negotiate on less favourable terms. In addition, the shutdown allows the president to project the image of a strong leader, capable of sacrificing the immediate in the name of greater political transformation.
A political and historical crossroads
At this moment, the country is at a crossroads. If the shutdown goes ahead tomorrow, Trump will face a high-risk scenario. He could emerge stronger as a ruthless strategist or, conversely, sink under the weight of a crisis that will directly affect millions of Americans.
The outcome will depend on two factors: the duration of the shutdown and the ability of each party to control the narrative. In the short term, the economic damage is undeniable. But in the long term, what is at stake is the president's ability to redefine the balance of power in Washington.
Weapon of pressure or historic mistake?
The Trump administration's shutdown is not a simple budgetary accident. It is the result of a calculated strategy that combines political confrontation, economic risk and an attempt to reshape the federal state. For some, it is a disaster waiting to happen that will weaken confidence in institutions. For others, it is a show of strength that will consolidate Trump's project.
The answer will begin to unfold in the coming hours. The only thing that is clear is that, whether it happens or not, the country is already preparing to face one of the most tense moments in its recent history.
