Turkish Cypriots elect president in Turkey's long shadow

The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (RTNC), which is only recognised by Turkey, is holding elections on Sunday to choose a president from among Mustafa Akinci, who has a federalist leaning, and Ersin Tatar, who won the first round and is aligned with Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The next day comes the second round of the presidential elections, in which the current president Mustafa Akinci, who is in favour of a federal solution for the island, will be competing with the nationalist Ersin Tatar, the favourite of Turkey, the sponsor country that recognises the RTNC alone, and the candidate who promotes a two-state solution for the confrontation between Turkish and Greek Cypriots, which has been in force since the Turkish invasion of the island of Cyprus that divided the north and the south in 1974.

During the first round of the elections last week, Ersin Tatar, leader of the Party of National Unity (PUN), was the most voted with 32.35% of the votes, followed by Mustafa Akinci, who appeared at the elections as an independent and got 29.84% of the votes. 

In third place was the centre-left leader of the Turkish Republican Party (CTP), Tufan Erhürman, with 21.68 percent, who this week announced his support for Akinci for the second round, which could mean, if the support of his followers for the federalist representative is confirmed, a blow for Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who could lose support in an artificial country that only resists for the sake of Ottoman sustenance. 

These last elections had the lowest turnout since 2015, as only 54.72 percent of the electorate turned out to exercise their right to vote. Both the election campaign and voting day were affected by the coronavirus pandemic which, in fact, delayed the election initially scheduled for half a year ago.

Erhürman said he shares "principles" with Akinci, including on "a federal solution to the Cyprus problem", as stated in a statement by the CTP. On the other hand, Tatar, until now prime minister of the RTNC, in addition to the PUN will be supported by the Renaissance party, whose candidate in the first round obtained only 5.36%.

Now a dispute between two models for the north of the Cypriot island remains to be settled. What the nearly 200,000 voters called to the polls tomorrow will determine the relationship of this community with Turkey, which has controlled the RTNC militarily and economically for decades. Cyprus is still divided into two areas since the Turkish invasion of the north of the island in 1974, one controlled by the Turkish Cypriots in the north and the other dominated by Cypriots linked to Greece in the south. 

On the one hand, Mustafa Akinci is a great supporter of the federation as a solution to the division of Cyprus, he wants to break the strong dependence on Turkey and during his mandate he has had several political clashes with Erdogan, who in his turn is experiencing internal problems in the country due to the strong economic crisis Turkey is going through, with a strong inflation and devaluation of the Turkish lira, and that is facing more and more political problems due to the loss of support, which was shown in the past defeat of its Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the last local elections, where it lost the control of important cities like Istanbul and Ankara, which passed to the hands of the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP). This situation has led to a strong purge of the Turkish state in different areas that has led to the arrest of members of the army and opposition activists accused of supporting the Kurdish ethnic group and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), an organisation considered as terrorist by Turkey, and also pointed out by links with the clergyman Fethullah Gülen, who is accused by the government to have carried out the coup in 2016. 

In this context, last week, Akinci assured that he and his family were threatened by the Turkish government not to run for re-election.

Meanwhile, Tatar, sponsored by Turkey, is an advocate of the creation of two independent states and enjoys great support in Ankara, where he went on 6 October to announce together with Erdogan the opening of part of the beach in the ghost town of Varosha. The announcement sparked national and international protests, as it violates the UN resolutions, and has been seen as Ottoman interference in the Turkish Cypriot elections. The PUN candidate has been defending his proposal of two states, the Turkish Cypriot north and the Greek Cypriot south, which could be constituted as a confederation, a solution that he understands as better before a federation, which has been negotiated without success for decades.

Akinci, for his part, maintained that the best solution is a bicommunal federation, with political equality between the two communities, and pointed out that the best option is for the island's native citizens, both Greek and Turkish Cypriots, and those from Turkey (the north of the island has been populated with Turkish citizens for the last few years), to be able to live together "happily and peacefully".

According to local political analysts, the autonomy of the Turkish Cypriots from Turkey is for the moment impossible and now the voters have to decide for one of the two presidential candidates taking into account the strong economic dependence on the Ottoman nation, which makes a confrontation between the RTNC and Ankara not interesting. 

The religious component is also very important. Everyone knows about the strong Islamism defended by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, while many Turkish Cypriots defend secularism and reject a possible Islamisation process by Turkey. 

Another determinant factor according to the experts will be the participation, which in the first round proved to be very low with a record of abstention. Only 54.72 percent voted, which analysts attribute to the indifference and pandemic of the COVID-19.

We will see what happens this Sunday in an election that is seen as a key step towards the possible resumption of efforts to reunify Cyprus and as a referendum on how the link between the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and Turkey itself is to be developed.