China and the Mahan Doctrine

There are certain facts that remain immutable over the centuries and which, despite the passage of time and advances in all areas, continue to condition the world in which we live. And one of these facts, which we all too often forget, is that our world, as we know it, our economic system, is based on maritime communications. 

The sea plays an essential role, not only as a source of food, but also as a route through which 90% of world trade circulates, according to data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Transport (UNCTAD). 

Mahan, in his work ‘The Influence of Sea Power upon History, 1660-1783’ (1890), set out his theories on the importance of sea power, which are fundamental in the field of naval strategy and geopolitics. 

His main argument was that control of the seas is crucial to a nation's power and influence. According to Mahan, nations that have dominated the oceans have had a decisive impact on global history. But this maritime power is not only based on a powerful and effective navy, but also on seaborne trade, naval bases and a strong shipbuilding industry. 

He argued that the fundamental pillar for controlling and governing the distribution of political power across the land has always been and always will be the ability to dominate the oceans and international passages along the sea routes. It was Mahan's firm conviction that maritime communications would always be more efficient, more capable than land-based communications. For that very reason he considered them to be the touchstone for economic development and the development of the power of nations. Those that understood this and knew how to benefit from it would prevail over the rest.

Five factors were considered by Mahan to be decisive in achieving such maritime power. Geographical position - nations with a favourable geographical position have a natural advantage in projecting naval power. Extent of territory - nations with extensive coastlines and multiple ports can develop stronger naval power. Population - a large population is essential both to man the navy and to sustain maritime trade. National character - Mahan emphasises the importance of entrepreneurship and the nation's disposition towards trade and shipping. And government - a government that supports maritime expansion and trade is crucial to developing and maintaining effective maritime power. 

Another key aspect for Mahan is the control of what he calls ‘trade routes’, which today we call SLOCs (Sea Line of Communication). By exercising this control, one protects one's own trade and has the ability to influence that of a potential enemy or adversary, being able, if necessary, to cut off their routes or even blockade key points along them. 

And that is the key to the point we are trying to make. Mahan's doctrine is as valid as ever, and although our eyes are on other conflicts that for various reasons attract more attention, the real power struggle continues to take place on the waves of the seas and oceans. 

The clearest example is China. Its economy is totally dependent on those SLOCs we have mentioned, on keeping them open and on safe navigation. Hence the great project known as the ‘New Silk Road’, which in turn is accompanied by what is known as the ‘String of Pearls’, which is nothing more than a series of naval bases along this route that serve not only as safe or maintenance points, if necessary, for ships transporting all kinds of goods, but also as military bases where the elements that provide security for the routes can be positioned to ensure that they remain open. In view of the above, it seems that China follows all the postulates of the Mahan doctrine one by one. We need only review them and compare them with Beijing's steps. 

But the evolution we have undergone since Mahan's time has meant that, although his geopolitical vision, technology and the emergence of new actors are still valid, it is no longer only the powers that can ‘apply’ it, at least some of its points. 

SLOCs are dotted with numerous choke points, control of which is not only key, but essential. This fact means that either those actors who need to use the routes must take great care to ensure that they are secure, or that alternative routes are sought to avoid these points. One of these geographical enclaves deserves the most attention and is possibly the most critical at present. This is none other than the Gulf of Aden. 

Located right at the intersection of the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea, it connects the two seas through the Bab el Mandeb Strait. It is probably the most strategic point that lies on what is the world's main trade route, connecting Asia to the Mediterranean through the Suez Canal. Clearly the canal is perhaps an even more critical point, but being under the control of a relatively stable regional power like Egypt, the danger that it could be blocked is relatively minor and limited to possible accidents, such as the one that happened a few years ago, or action by a non-state actor, which is possible but not likely. 

But Bab el Mandeb and the Gulf of Aden are in a totally different situation. The proof is in the mission that has had to be deployed to ensure free navigation due to constant attacks by Houthi rebels. This proves that in today's world unconventional actors, whether in the service of contending powers or not, can carry out actions with literally unpredictable impact. In this particular case, the Houthi movements are framed in the context of Israel's conflict with Hamas and Iran's position as a power that finances, protects and trains its proxy militias such as Hamas or the Houthis themselves. 

For the moment, the consequences of the attacks around this ‘choke point’ are not being of much significance, on the one hand, due to international action, but, on the other, due to the containment, in this case, of the aggressors. No one is unaware of the enormous difficulty of controlling the entire coastline dominated by the Houthis and of countering an attack of a certain magnitude that combined the use of maritime and aerial drones and missiles. If such an action, or two at most, were successful, the impact on shipping would be enormous. Most shipping lines would almost 100 per cent avoid such a passage, which would mean bypassing the entire African continent and heading up the Atlantic to reach the Mediterranean. This would also affect Egypt, as it would de facto invalidate the Suez Canal. 

If this has not yet happened, it is largely due to China's pressure on Iran, with whom it has relatively good relations. China would probably bear the brunt of a closure of the Bab el Mandeb. And again, linking back to what is happening in other latitudes, we can find the explanation for China's lukewarm support for Russia in its conflict with Ukraine. The so-called ‘Northern Route’ will sooner or later become a reality. In part it already is, but year by year the transit of ships through it increases, and the weaker Russia is, the country with the most kilometres of Arctic coastline, the easier it will be for China to gain advantages in using this route. China needs a route that not only reduces sailing times and therefore costs, but also acts as a viable and cost-effective alternative route in the event of a disruption to existing routes. 

And we cannot ignore the fact that China sees itself as the world's new great power. It understands that the time of US hegemony is over, and all its efforts in economic, social, military, etc. are directed towards that end. Mahan argued that history shows that control of the seas is the key to national greatness. A nation that aspires to be a world power must develop formidable maritime power, something that China has focused on for many years, focusing on protecting its trade and strategic bases, and seeking naval supremacy through a powerful and well-positioned fleet. 

A theory put forward in the 19th century is serving as the basis for the development and expansion of a new power in the 21st century. Now more than ever we should look back to the classics and review history. Sometimes in our hubris we think we have invented the wheel, and it has long since begun to turn.