Towards a climate war in the Sahel?

"If the wars in the Sahel are attributed to climate change, there is a risk of underestimating the weight of the political dynamics behind this conflict," says Tor Benjaminsen, a geographer specializing in the Sahel and professor at the Norwegian University of Life Sciences. The Sahel region is a semi-arid area located in the south of the Sahara Desert, which separates the Maghreb region from sub-Saharan Africa. The citizens of the countries that make up this region have historically had to deal with non-existent soil fertility, as well as with extreme climatic conditions that have led to a shortage of basic resources. The floods and droughts that hit this area also increase local conflicts between farmers and ranchers over land and water. A study by the International Crisis Group looks at how the depletion of resources due to climate change may be related to the increase in violence in this region. 

People in these countries depend on agriculture, livestock (mainly grazing) and scarce natural resources such as gold in Mali or uranium in Niger for their livelihoods. The constant droughts and floods they have had to face over the past decades have meant that deforestation and crop shortages have given way to new threats such as disputes over control of these limited resources. These increased tensions, coupled with other factors such as endemic poverty, hunger, the spread of disease, chronic conflict and low levels of development, have pushed thousands and thousands of people to the brink. 

Niger's President Mahamadou Issoufou explained during the opening speech of the United Nations General Assembly summit on climate change in the Sahel that in his country "100,000 hectares of arable land are lost every year. The degradation of our land is unprecedented and affects people in rural areas, young people and many women". This situation is similar to that of other countries in the region, where temperatures are rising 1.5 times faster than the world average, according to data from Climate Watch and the UN.

According to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, vulnerability to climate change is defined as the "degree to which systems are susceptible to or unable to cope with the adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the nature, magnitude and rate of climate change, and of the variations to which the system is exposed, its sensitivity and its adaptive capacity". The study by the International Crisis Group believes that responding to the growing insecurity in the Sahel region requires looking beyond the hypothesis that links global warming and resource scarcity to outbreaks of violence. 

The countries most affected by climate vulnerability in the Sahel are mainly Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. In the late 20th century, during the 1970s and 1980s, these countries faced a series of historical droughts that would mark their future. Poverty became a constant in these regions; all this added to the proliferation of armed groups in rural areas. "One of the theories is that global warming is causing a reduction in available resources and, consequently, an increase in violence. But the evidence does not seem to confirm this. The spread of conflict in the region is linked more to modes of production than to the decline in resources," they explain in the research conducted by the International Crisis Group. According to this study, the central region of the Sahel has become an "epicenter of insecurity" caused by the transfer of state authorities to the cities and the proliferation of armed groups in rural areas. 

After analyzing a number of cases, the researchers conducting this study have concluded that "if governments base their development policies on the premise that resource scarcity automatically leads to increased violence, they will risk formulating inadequate responses to the profound transformation of pastoralist farming systems". In view of this situation, they consider it essential to design instruments that can guarantee a "more equitable" distribution of the resources created; and to find a solution that responds to the interests of the different production systems and considers both sedentary farmers and nomadic pastors. 

The increase in instability and violence in the Sahel region has taken place progressively, at the same time as African society and institutions have raised their voices to the world to be responsible for solving the problems affecting the region, rather than the international community. With this in mind, in February 2019 at least 17 countries met in the capital of Niger to draw up an investment plan to combat the effects of climate change worth $400 billion (more than EUR 350 billion) that could be implemented between 2019 and 2030. "This plan to combat global warming combines actions to stop the cycle of impoverishment in the Sahel and interventions to prevent the spread of armed groups," the International Crisis Group researchers have explained. According to this plan, the countries of the Sahel should also deploy troops to prevent an increase in violence at the same time as they increase their investment in development to ensure access to resources. 

Beyond the fact that the difficulty in accessing certain raw materials has been the spark that has lit the flame of several conflicts in the region, the researchers of the study 'The Central Sahel:Scene of New Climate Wars?' consider that there is a close relationship between the increase in resources and the consequent increase in tensions. An example of this is the conflict in Central Mali. "The wells attracted Dogon farmers from central Mali, who settled there, initially with the permission of Fulani shepherds, who were often recognized by the state as having land-use rights. Over time, the number of farmers grew and they began to assert their rights over the land surrounding the wells, which had been excavated by the shepherds ". Tensions between the pastoralists and farmers worsened, as neither the state nor the traditional local authorities "seemed able to regulate land use in a peaceful and consensual manner," this study explains. 

However, this is not the only example. Something similar happened in Burkina Faso, where a project called Riz Pluvial helped the municipality of Belehédé to obtain better rice harvests and thus increase production. "This project also affected the local demographic and political balance by attracting non-native farmers, mainly from the Fulse and Mossi ethnic groups. As a result, the Fulse landowners, who are often nomadic pastoralists, felt driven off the land without adequate compensation. There are several similar cases throughout the Sahel that show that it is often not the absence or scarcity of resources that causes violence, but rather the lack of regulation when it comes to increasing production or working with new raw materials". 

In this context, we must consider the growing presence of countries such as China, Saudi Arabia or Qatar in this region, a presence that, on some occasions, further weakens the local agricultural populations. The Indian economist and Nobel Prize winner Amartya Sen insisted that "hunger and famine are not necessarily caused by drought, but by the lack of efficient planning systems, organized leadership and political will, along with deficient food distribution systems," according to the Middle East Eye. At the same time, the growing insecurity caused by the proliferation of armed groups has led thousands of pastoralists and farmers to fear for their lives while they are working and has caused many of these people to move to urban centers in order to find a future away from the instability to which they are accustomed.  

Climate change increases the difficulties of access to certain resources such as water or some food and may contribute to forced migration. All these elements are a risk to the geopolitical stability of the countries that make up the Sahel, while at the same time influencing the security, prosperity and well-being of these nations. The struggle for resources reflects the crisis of legitimacy that the Sahel region is currently experiencing. Policies are now needed that do not neglect the agriculture and livestock sectors, two of the main drivers of development in the region. Added to this challenge is the inability of governments to formulate policies that offer opportunities to the youngest. While it is true that climate change can create the perfect breeding ground for the emergence of certain armed groups, the main cause of the increase in violence and confrontations is a lack of fair regulation over certain actions and resources.