Mexico and the forgotten victims behind government statistics

The writer and Nobel Prize in Literature Camilo José Cela said that "death is sweet, but its antechamber is cruel". However, more cruel is to die and become a forgotten victim, as has happened to dozens of people in Mexico, according to various studies published in recent weeks.  This Sunday, the country's government has registered 4,683 new cases and at least 273 deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which has left 256,848 infected and around 30,639 dead in this nation. A study by independent researchers Mario Romero and Laurianne Despeghel says the number of deaths is higher than the number of deaths recorded by the government, as these depend on the number of tests carried out. Thus, according to their research there are 3.5 more deaths in the country than those reported by health authorities, led by epidemiologist Hugo López-Gatell.

After analyzing and contrasting different investigations, the Financial Times has concluded that there are thousands of people whose deaths have been ignored in government statistics. A Mexican professor at the University of Berlin has calculated that his country could have up to 6 million cases and nearly 78,000 deaths, almost three times the official count. "I find it incredible that, instead of giving figures, the government hides them and does not admit the seriousness of the situation," he told the FT newspaper. "In his study, Professor Rojas noted that the official national statistics for June attributed 40 percent more deaths to May than had been reported at the time. To correct the administrative delays, he calculated that the number of deaths in Mexico should be multiplied by 1.4," the newspaper explained. 

The new coronavirus continues to spread across the globe. Specifically, in Latin America, where the disease has propagated at an especially rapid pace over the past two months, to such an extent that the World Health Organization (WHO) has positioned this continent as the new global epicenter of the pandemic. At present, the most affected country worldwide is the United States, with more than 2.8 million infections and around 129,000 deaths, followed by Brazil, with more than 1.5 million cases and more than 64,000 deaths. 

The case of Mexico - where the government had planned to return to the new normality last June 1 - is paradigmatic, since it only counts the cases and deaths that have been confirmed by a laboratory.  The low number of tests performed has caused about 67% of them to be positive, so many cases could be overlooked, according to the Financial Times. The Mexican executive considers that the massive tests would be a "waste of time and money," as Hugo López-Gatell, undersecretary of the health ministry, pointed out. He also said that "the WHO's call to test, test and test had been extended in a mistaken and distorted way". 

In this scenario, more and more analysts and experts fear that Mexico, the second largest economy in the region, will have to face a new outbreak.  The Financial Times has warned that until official data on the number of deaths in 2021 are released, the most accurate estimates come from software developer and data analyst Mario Romero or economic consultant Ms. Despeghel. Both researchers have accessed data recorded in the Mexican capital's civil registry since the beginning of the pandemic, regardless of the cause of death, and have found a 126 percent increase in recent months compared to the same period between 2016 and 2018. ​​​​​​​

The magazine Nexos - where both authors have been publishing their statistics - has warned that "according to data obtained for the courts of the Civil Registry of Mexico City, the excess mortality in the week of 22 to 28 June is estimated at 1,392, following a downward trend from its peak in the 21st week". "In the last week, we had an excess mortality of 104%, that is, twice as many people as normal died in Mexico City," they said. 

The president of Mexico - who at first minimized the risk of this disease - has defended during the last weeks that the country he leads "has already passed the worst", although the number of cases continues to increase.  Lopez Obrador on Sunday refused to compare the numbers of deaths from coronavirus in Mexico with other European countries, after the country overtook France and Spain. "Yes, only the population of Spain and France is smaller than that of Mexico (...). For every one who has died in our country, three have died in Spain. We cannot compare this," he said in statements collected by the AFP news agency. In the same line has acted the professor of the University of Cambridge David Spiegelhalter, who has warned of the danger of using different methodologies to report the deaths of coronavirus. 

The Mexican organization against corruption and impunity published a report in May following this same theory, claiming that "between March 18 and May 12, 4,577 death certificates were issued in Mexico City in which the words Covid-19, or coronavirus or Sars Cov 2, appear as the confirmed or probable cause of death; that is, three times more deaths related to the pandemic than those reported in the official figures". The Financial Times has also had access to two other studies that track emergency service calls and that also question these data. The battle of numbers is being fought between institutions and the government, while the country has begun its process of reopening.  According to the traffic light system established in the country to move towards the new normality - composed of four colors (red, orange, yellow and green) - at least 17 states are at orange traffic lights, while another 15 are still in red.