Moroccan Sahara: Ahead of the Security Council meeting...

As the Security Council meeting scheduled for October 30, 2025 approaches, the Moroccan Sahara issue appears to be on the cusp of a new phase, with a tangible shift in the balance of international and regional positions in favor of Morocco, especially after the consolidation of the autonomy proposal as the sole reference for negotiation.

This time, the United States is leading the scene, presenting a draft resolution calling for direct negotiations between the parties without preconditions, considering Morocco's 2007 autonomy proposal as a realistic and serious basis for an agreement.

Washington proposes reducing the duration of the MINURSO mission to only three months, in an attempt to accelerate a political solution and not leave the issue stalled for long periods, in line with continued US support for Morocco since the Trump administration recognized its sovereignty over the Sahara in 2020.

On the other hand, Algeria considers the US project to be biased toward Morocco, especially in its praise for the autonomy proposal and the reduction of MINURSO's mandate.

It appears that its initial position would lean toward abstention or clear reservation, in line with its traditional support for the Polisario Front. The same front recently presented a proposal to share what it calls a “peace bill” with Morocco, without renouncing the demand for self-determination, in a move aimed at buying time and coping with international pressure.

Russia chose a balanced path, showing conditional support for the Moroccan autonomy initiative within a UN framework, representing a shift from negative neutrality to positive neutrality, while Moscow is expected to abstain without resorting to a veto to avoid any tension with the parties.

At the European level, despite the support of France, Britain, and Spain for the autonomy initiative and the upcoming vote by Paris and London in favor of Morocco, European influence declined in the face of the strong presence of the United States, which has become the most prominent actor in directing the course of negotiations within the Security Council.

As for China, despite insisting on not supporting separatist movements, it is expected to take a neutral position to preserve its economic interests and balanced relations with Morocco and Algeria.

On the other hand, most other countries continue to support Morocco's position as the most realistic and stable.

Amid these transformations, Washington, through its envoy David Whitkoff, announced an initiative to ease tensions between Algeria and Morocco and create a regional atmosphere conducive to a political solution far from any escalation.

With the expansion of the number of countries supporting the autonomy initiative, which has exceeded 120 countries, Morocco's position is strengthening within the corridors of the United Nations, while the positions of the other parties vary between caution and restraint. Washington is pushing for a practical solution, Algeria is reserved, Russia and China tend to shy away from confrontation, and Europe has reversed its role to the second row.

In the end, Morocco seems to be handling the issue with more confidence as the post-vote phase approaches, which could open the door to a long-awaited regional resolution and give momentum to a political path that has been stalled for decades.